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Manchester City vs Fulham - Premier League prediction, preview and lineups

Premier League
Round 11
Manchester City logo
Manchester City3rd · 21 ptsLLLWW
Sat 21 Nov12:30
Fulham logo
Fulham15th · 10 ptsDDWWL
Our prediction · 1-0Win · Draw · Win
62%22%16%

Sat 21 Nov 2026, 12:30

Etihad Stadium, Manchester

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Team news

Manchester City

Top performers

  • E. HaalandTop scorer14 goals
  • P. FodenMost assists4 assists
  • R. CherkiBest rating7.28 avg

Unavailable

  • A. SemenyoJumpers KneeOut
Fulham

Top performers

  • Rodrigo MunizTop scorer3 goals
  • Joshua KingMost assists2 assists
  • A. IwobiBest rating7.33 avg

Unavailable

  • T. CairneyJumpers KneeOut

Loading analysis...

Premier League table

#TeamPGDPts
2Brighton10+1922
3Manchester City10+821
4Liverpool10+418
14Ipswich10-511
15Fulham10-210
16Nottingham Forest10-49

Sat 21 Nov 2026, 12:30

Etihad Stadium, Manchester

DAZN SpainDAZN PortugalArena Sport 1 CroatiaViaplay NorwaySky Go

Team news

Manchester City

Top performers

  • E. HaalandTop scorer14 goals
  • P. FodenMost assists4 assists
  • R. CherkiBest rating7.28 avg

Unavailable

  • A. SemenyoJumpers KneeOut
Fulham

Top performers

  • Rodrigo MunizTop scorer3 goals
  • Joshua KingMost assists2 assists
  • A. IwobiBest rating7.33 avg

Unavailable

  • T. CairneyJumpers KneeOut

Premier League table

#TeamPGDPts
2Brighton10+1922
3Manchester City10+821
4Liverpool10+418
14Ipswich10-511
15Fulham10-210
16Nottingham Forest10-49

AI prediction

Manchester City are clear favourites.

Our pick: Manchester City 1-0 Fulham

62%Manchester City win
22%Draw
16%Fulham win

Most likely scores

  • 1-017%Our pick
  • 2-013%
  • 2-112%
  • 1-110%
  • 0-08%
How we predict this

Expected goals: Manchester City 1.6, Fulham 0.8 - the average number of goals each side should score, from this season's results at home and away.

Our stats model alone gave 46% / 29% / 25% (Manchester City / draw / Fulham); the odds of 10 bookmakers gave 67% / 19% / 14%. We combine the two, with the bookmakers counting for about 75%: odds also reflect injuries and team news.

Our pick is the likeliest score within the likeliest result, so it never contradicts the chances above.

How accurate are our predictions? See the record →

AI match preview

Key Factors
1Manchester City's home form (4 wins, 1 loss in 5 games) and high goal ratio (11-7)
2Fulham's weak away record (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses in 5 games) and low away scoring (3 goals)
3Expected goals disparity (1.6 for City vs 0.8 for Fulham) indicating City's attacking dominance
4Fulham's defensive resilience (3 clean sheets) and potential to draw games
5Discrepancy between model's 29% draw chance and bookmakers' 19%—stats may understate Fulham's ability to avoid heavy defeats but overstate their chances of winning
Manchester City's strong home record, including 4 wins in 5 matches with 11 goals scored and only 7 conceded, highlights their dominance at Etihad Stadium. Their overall form (7 wins in 8 games) and high expected goals (1.6) further reinforce their attacking efficiency. Fulham's away struggles—just 1 win in 5 games, scoring only 3 goals and conceding 4—suggest they may struggle against a high-quality side like City. The model's 62% win probability for City aligns with their superior home performance and higher expected goals, while Fulham's 16% chance reflects their weak away record and lower attacking output. However, Fulham's 3 clean sheets in the Premier League and ability to draw games (2 draws in 5 away matches) could lead to a draw if City's defense falters or if Fulham's midfield disrupts City's attack. A Fulham win would require an unlikely combination of City's poor performance and Fulham's rare away success.