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Newcastle vs Arsenal - Premier League prediction, preview and lineups

Premier League
Round 11
Newcastle logo
Newcastle12th · 12 ptsDLWLL
Sat 21 Nov17:30
Arsenal logo
Arsenal1st · 27 ptsWWWWW
Our prediction · 0-1Win · Draw · Win
20%25%55%

Sat 21 Nov 2026, 17:30

St. James' Park, Newcastle

DAZN SpainDAZN PortugalTV3+ HDArena Sport 1 CroatiaViaplay Denmark

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Team news

Newcastle

Top performers

  • H. BarnesTop scorer4 goals
  • A. DedićMost assists4 assists
  • L. HallBest rating7.00 avg

Unavailable

  • E. JaouenMuscle BruiseOut
Arsenal

Top performers

  • M. ØdegaardTop scorer5 goals
  • D. RiceMost assists5 assists
  • M. ØdegaardBest rating7.51 avg

Unavailable

  • B. SakaThigh ProblemsOut

Loading analysis...

Premier League table

#TeamPGDPts
1Arsenal10+1027
2Brighton10+1922
11Tottenham10-112
12Newcastle10-312
13Hull City10011

Sat 21 Nov 2026, 17:30

St. James' Park, Newcastle

DAZN SpainDAZN PortugalTV3+ HDArena Sport 1 CroatiaViaplay Denmark

Team news

Newcastle

Top performers

  • H. BarnesTop scorer4 goals
  • A. DedićMost assists4 assists
  • L. HallBest rating7.00 avg

Unavailable

  • E. JaouenMuscle BruiseOut
Arsenal

Top performers

  • M. ØdegaardTop scorer5 goals
  • D. RiceMost assists5 assists
  • M. ØdegaardBest rating7.51 avg

Unavailable

  • B. SakaThigh ProblemsOut

Premier League table

#TeamPGDPts
1Arsenal10+1027
2Brighton10+1922
11Tottenham10-112
12Newcastle10-312
13Hull City10011

AI prediction

Arsenal are clear favourites.

Our pick: Newcastle 0-1 Arsenal

20%Newcastle win
25%Draw
55%Arsenal win

Most likely scores

  • 0-118%Our pick
  • 0-212%
  • 1-111%
  • 0-011%
  • 1-210%
How we predict this

Expected goals: Newcastle 0.8, Arsenal 1.4 - the average number of goals each side should score, from this season's results at home and away.

Our stats model alone gave 27% / 32% / 42% (Newcastle / draw / Arsenal); the odds of 9 bookmakers gave 18% / 23% / 59%. We combine the two, with the bookmakers counting for about 75%: odds also reflect injuries and team news.

Our pick is the likeliest score within the likeliest result, so it never contradicts the chances above.

How accurate are our predictions? See the record →

AI match preview

Key Factors
1Arsenal's away performance (4 wins, 7 clean sheets) versus Newcastle's home struggles (2 losses, 7 goals conceded).
2The disparity in expected goals (1.4 for Arsenal vs 0.8 for Newcastle), highlighting Arsenal's attacking edge.
3Newcastle's lack of home clean sheets (only 2 in 5 matches) compared to Arsenal's 7 away clean sheets.
4Overall form: Arsenal's 9-match winning streak (WWWWLWWWWW) versus Newcastle's mixed results (DWDLWLLWLD).
5Bookmakers' odds weighting (75% influence) may reflect intangible factors like momentum or player confidence not captured in the statistical model.
The model's strong preference for an Arsenal win (55%) stems from their dominant away form, which includes 4 wins from 5 matches, 3 goals conceded, and 7 clean sheets. This contrasts sharply with Newcastle's inconsistent home record, where they have only 1 win from 5 matches and conceded 7 goals. Arsenal's ability to maintain clean sheets away from home suggests a disciplined defensive structure, while Newcastle's home defense has struggled to prevent goals. The expected goals (1.4 for Arsenal vs 0.8 for Newcastle) further align with this trend, reflecting Arsenal's attacking efficiency and Newcastle's defensive vulnerabilities. However, the model's lower probability for a Newcastle win (20%) and draw (25%) could be influenced by factors not captured in the statistics, such as potential tactical adjustments by Newcastle or injuries affecting Arsenal's key players. The most likely score (0-1) aligns with Arsenal's low-conceding away record and Newcastle's limited home scoring.