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FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 - Bundesliga prediction, preview and lineups

Bundesliga
Round 10
FC Augsburg logo
FC Augsburg14th · 9 ptsLLDLD
Sun 22 Nov14:30
FSV Mainz 05 logo
FSV Mainz 0512th · 10 ptsLLLWL
Our prediction · 1-2Win · Draw · Win
33%22%45%

Sun 22 Nov 2026, 14:30

WWK Arena, Augsburg

Loading analysis...

Team news

FC Augsburg

Top performers

  • M. GregoritschTop scorer5 goals
  • F. RiederMost assists5 assists
  • F. DahmenBest rating7.35 avg

Unavailable

No reported injuries or suspensions.

FSV Mainz 05

Top performers

  • P. TietzTop scorer10 goals
  • A. CaciMost assists4 assists
  • A. CaciBest rating7.36 avg

Unavailable

No reported injuries or suspensions.

Loading analysis...

Bundesliga table

#TeamPGDPts
11Hamburger SV9-1012
12FSV Mainz 059-110
13SC Paderborn 079-310
14FC Augsburg909
151. FC Köln9-49

Sun 22 Nov 2026, 14:30

WWK Arena, Augsburg

Team news

FC Augsburg

Top performers

  • M. GregoritschTop scorer5 goals
  • F. RiederMost assists5 assists
  • F. DahmenBest rating7.35 avg

Unavailable

No reported injuries or suspensions.

FSV Mainz 05

Top performers

  • P. TietzTop scorer10 goals
  • A. CaciMost assists4 assists
  • A. CaciBest rating7.36 avg

Unavailable

No reported injuries or suspensions.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPGDPts
11Hamburger SV9-1012
12FSV Mainz 059-110
13SC Paderborn 079-310
14FC Augsburg909
151. FC Köln9-49

AI prediction

FSV Mainz 05 are favourites.

Our pick: FC Augsburg 1-2 FSV Mainz 05

33%FC Augsburg win
22%Draw
45%FSV Mainz 05 win

Most likely scores

  • 1-18%
  • 1-28%Our pick
  • 2-27%
  • 2-17%
  • 1-36%

1-1 is the single likeliest score, but a FSV Mainz 05 win (45%) is likelier than a draw (22%), so we pick the likeliest score for a FSV Mainz 05 win.

How we predict this

Expected goals: FC Augsburg 1.8, FSV Mainz 05 2.1 - the average number of goals each side should score, from this season's results at home and away.

Our pick is the likeliest score within the likeliest result, so it never contradicts the chances above.

How accurate are our predictions? See the record →

AI match preview

Key Factors
1FSV Mainz 05's strong away record and defensive consistency (3 clean sheets in 4 away games)
2FC Augsburg's inconsistent home performance and lower expected goals (1.8) compared to Mainz (2.1)
3Mainz's ability to maintain a high scoring rate (11 goals in 4 away games) versus Augsburg's moderate home attack (9 goals in 5 games)
4Augsburg's current form (WWDLDLDLL) and potential for defensive resilience
5The likelihood of set-piece opportunities influencing the match outcome due to both teams' goal-scoring patterns
The model's prediction favors FSV Mainz 05 winning due to their superior away performance compared to FC Augsburg's inconsistent home record. Mainz has a strong away record in the Bundesliga, with 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss in 4 away games, scoring 11 goals while conceding only 7. This contrasts with Augsburg's home form, which includes just 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in 5 games, with a goal ratio of 9 scored and 7 conceded. Mainz's defensive solidity on the road (3 clean sheets) and higher expected goals (2.1) suggest they are more likely to dominate possession and create scoring opportunities. Augsburg's current form (WWDLDLDLL) and lower expected goals (1.8) indicate they may struggle to break down a disciplined Mainz side. However, Augsburg's home defense (1 clean sheet) and ability to score in every game could prevent a heavy defeat, making a draw or a narrow Augsburg win possible if they capitalize on set pieces or defensive errors.