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Bournemouth vs Leeds - Premier League prediction, preview and lineups

Premier LeaguePremier League
Round 9
Bournemouth logoBournemouth(Pos. 15)
VS
31 Oct 202615:00
Leeds logoLeeds(Pos. 7)

31 Oct 2026, 15:00

Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth

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AI Pre-Match Analysis

Score Prediction
1-0
Confidence
Low39%
Result probabilities
39%Bournemouth
31%Draw
31%Leeds

Expected goals 1.2 – 1.0

Score probabilities
Most likely: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (12%)
Leeds goals
012345+
Bournemouth goals01210621
11214721
28841
33321
411
5+

% chance of each score. Blue Bournemouth win, grey draw, amber Leeds win; darker is likelier. Outlined: our predicted score.

Key Factors
1Bournemouth’s home attacking performance (5 goals in 4 matches) versus Leeds’ away defensive record (3 conceded in 3 matches).
2Leeds’ ability to maintain clean sheets away from home, which could reduce Bournemouth’s scoring chances.
3The expected goal differential (1.2-1.0), reflecting Bournemouth’s slight edge in this venue.
4Bournemouth’s current form (LDDDLLW) versus Leeds’ more consistent away results (WDDWDLD).
5Leeds’ overall defensive record (6 conceded) compared to Bournemouth’s higher home conceded total (4 in 4 matches).
The statistical model favors a Bournemouth win (39%) and a draw (31%) due to Bournemouth’s home advantage and their ability to score in this venue. At home, Bournemouth have scored 5 goals in 4 matches, including a clean sheet, suggesting their attack functions more effectively on their own ground. Leeds, while showing better overall defensive stats (6 conceded in 7 matches compared to Bournemouth’s 13), have a mixed away record (3 games, 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss) and have conceded 3 goals in their away fixtures. This could leave them vulnerable to Bournemouth’s home-based attacking efficiency. The model’s expected goals (1.2 for Bournemouth, 1.0 for Leeds) align with Bournemouth’s stronger home performance, though Leeds’ away defensive resilience (2 clean sheets) might limit Bournemouth’s scoring opportunities. A Leeds win (30%) is less likely but could occur if their away defense holds firm and their attacking efficiency (3 goals in 3 away games) translates into a goal, particularly if Bournemouth’s home form falters.
How accurate are our predictions? See the record →