Houston Rockets vs Denver Nuggets, NBA

NBATue 10 Nov, 01:30

Toyota Center

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4T
Houston Rockets32222333110
Denver Nuggets24162832100
Houston RocketsDenver Nuggets
41/91 (45%)Field goals37/83 (45%)
14/38 (37%)3-pointers8/29 (28%)
14/17 (82%)Free throws18/25 (72%)
51Rebounds39
29Assists20
5Steals7
3Blocks6
11Turnovers12

Houston Rockets

PlayerMINPTSREBASTFG3PTFT
Kevin Durant36:10231286-151-310-10
Alperen Sengun35:07201289-171-31-3
Jabari Smith Jr.37:3314736-132-80-0
Fred VanVleet30:0012124-93-61-2
Tari Eason18:5312525-112-60-0
Amen Thompson35:078933-80-02-2
Bogdan Bogdanovic11:508313-52-20-0
R. Sheppard17:008003-82-70-0
Marcus Smart17:155222-51-30-0
I. Crawford00:330000-00-00-0
B. Thornton00:330000-00-00-0

Denver Nuggets

PlayerMINPTSREBASTFG3PTFT
Jamal Murray39:12382214-235-85-5
Nikola Jokic38:382516911-211-52-2
Cameron Johnson30:428212-62-52-3
DeMar DeRozan19:127422-80-13-3
Marvin Bagley12:256302-20-02-4
T. Brazile13:335202-30-11-2
Christian Braun32:244532-70-40-2
Aaron Gordon30:093521-60-21-2
B. Hopkins03:142001-20-00-0
Tyus Jones05:352000-20-12-2
Alpha Diallo00:330000-00-00-0
D. Holmes00:330000-00-00-0
S. Jones13:540010-30-20-0

Our prediction

This season: 95 of 132 picks right (72%)

We picked Houston Rockets (73%)Correct

Houston Rockets 73%27% Denver Nuggets
Projected score
113–106
Final 110–100
Expected margin
Houston Rocketsby 7
Total points
~220
Actual 210

Houston Rockets’s chance: our ratings say 71%, the bookmakers (8) 74%. The figure above weighs the two.

How we predict this

Every team gets an attack and a defence rating from its results this season and last, with recent games counting most, plus a home-court edge. Those give the projected score; the expected margin and how much scores usually swing around it give the chance to win. When bookmakers have priced the game we blend in their odds, which also reflect injuries and rest. The prediction is locked at tip-off, and the season record above counts only those locked picks.

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