Fenerbahce vs Baskonia, EuroLeague

EuroLeagueThu 5 Nov, 18:00

Ulker Sports and Event Hall

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4T
Fenerbahce3319112184
Baskonia181492465
FenerbahceBaskonia
24/50 (48%)Field goals20/41 (49%)
9/24 (38%)3-pointers4/25 (16%)
10/9 (111%)Free throws22/13 (169%)
42Rebounds38
19Assists19
2Steals6
3Blocks4
11Turnovers12

Fenerbahce

PlayerMINPTSREBASTFG3PTFT
Talen Horton-Tucker23:0719547-131-24-4
Braxton Key23:3213515-81-12-2
Will Clyburn14:1910214-71-41-1
Shavon Shields16:269214-81-50-0
M. Bingham20:269914-111-40-0
Wade Baldwin16:348314-90-00-0
Shane Larkin15:346012-42-30-0
Nicolo Melli19:193211-51-20-0
Johnny Juzang08:093201-21-20-0
Dwight Powell13:443721-10-01-1
Trent Forrest16:231240-30-12-1
Ignas Sargiunas12:270320-20-00-0

Baskonia

PlayerMINPTSREBASTFG3PTFT
K. Simmons25:3312254-80-55-4
D.J. Stewart27:0112303-71-34-3
Clement Frisch28:2510424-92-60-0
K. Faried24:40101534-70-04-2
S. Joksimovic21:537411-51-44-2
D. Baugh18:196213-60-02-0
A.J. Lawson27:105442-20-42-1
Matteo Spagnolo16:483231-30-11-1
Chris Duarte10:110200-30-20-0

Our prediction

This season: 20 of 34 picks right (59%)

We picked Fenerbahce (86%)Correct

Fenerbahce 86%14% Baskonia
Projected score
90–78
Final 84–65
Expected margin
Fenerbahceby 11
Total points
~168
Actual 149

Fenerbahce’s chance: our ratings say 84%, the bookmakers (8) 87%. The figure above weighs the two.

How we predict this

Every team gets an attack and a defence rating from its results this season and last, with recent games counting most, plus a home-court edge. Those give the projected score; the expected margin and how much scores usually swing around it give the chance to win. When bookmakers have priced the game we blend in their odds, which also reflect injuries and rest. The prediction is locked at tip-off, and the season record above counts only those locked picks.

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