Result probabilities
71%Trabzonspor
19%Draw
11%Gaziantep FK
Expected goals 2.3 – 0.8
Score probabilities
Most likely: 2-0 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%) | | Gaziantep FK goals |
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| | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ |
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| Trabzonspor goals | 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | | | |
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| 1 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 1 | | |
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| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | | |
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| 3 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | | |
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| 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | | | |
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| 5+ | 4 | 3 | 1 | | | |
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% chance of each score. Blue Trabzonspor win, grey draw, amber Gaziantep FK win; darker is likelier. Outlined: our predicted score.
1Trabzonspor's home dominance (4 wins, 13 goals scored, 1 conceded)
2Gaziantep FK's weak away defense (6 goals conceded in 4 matches)
3Trabzonspor's high overall goal output (18 scored in 8 games)
4Gaziantep's inconsistency in scoring (only 8 goals in 8 games)
5Trabzonspor's clean sheet record at home (4 in 4 matches)
Trabzonspor's home form is a dominant factor in the model's prediction, with 4 consecutive wins at home, scoring 13 goals while conceding just 1. This indicates a highly effective attacking unit and a defense that has maintained clean sheets in all home games this season. Their overall record of 18 goals scored in 8 matches further reinforces their offensive strength, contrasting sharply with Gaziantep FK's away struggles, where they have scored only 6 goals in 4 matches while conceding 6. Gaziantep's defensive fragility on the road, coupled with their overall record of 12 goals conceded in 8 games, suggests vulnerability against a team like Trabzonspor, who have consistently outperformed opponents at home. The expected goal differential (2.3-0.8) aligns with these trends, reflecting Trabzonspor's ability to dominate possession and create scoring opportunities while limiting Gaziantep's chances.
The model's confidence in a Trabzonspor win is also supported by their current form (DWLWLWWW) compared to Gaziantep's inconsistent performance (DWLWDLLL). However, the possibility of a draw or a Gaziantep upset hinges on Trabzonspor's ability to maintain focus and avoid defensive errors. Gaziantep's two away wins could provide motivation, but their lack of clean sheets (only 2 in 4 away games) and three instances of failing to score suggest they may struggle to contain Trabzonspor's attacking threats. A draw would require Trabzonspor to fail to score or Gaziantep to capitalize on rare chances, both of which are statistically unlikely given the data.
How accurate are our predictions? See the record →
Süper Lig
