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Telstar vs PEC Zwolle - Eredivisie prediction, preview and lineups

Eredivisie
Round 13
Telstar logo
Telstar16th · 10 ptsDWLLD
Sat 21 Nov20:00
PEC Zwolle logo
PEC Zwolle13th · 12 ptsDWDWL
Our prediction · 2-1Win · Draw · Win
43%25%31%

Sat 21 Nov 2026, 20:00

BUKO Stadion, Velsen-Zuid

Loading analysis...

Team news

Telstar

Top performers

  • T. OwusuTop scorer5 goals
  • P. BrouwerMost assists3 assists
  • R. KoemanBest rating7.39 avg

Unavailable

No reported injuries or suspensions.

PEC Zwolle

Top performers

  • K. KostonsTop scorer4 goals
  • D. MbayoMost assists4 assists
  • J. SchendelaarBest rating7.00 avg

Unavailable

  • F. KrastevAchilles Tendon InjuryOut
  • G. RahajaanInactiveOut
  • S. FloranusInjuryOut

Loading analysis...

Eredivisie table

#TeamPGDPts
12Sparta Rotterdam12-812
13PEC Zwolle12-1112
14Utrecht12-1312
15Excelsior12-1311
16Telstar12-710
17ADO Den Haag12-99

Sat 21 Nov 2026, 20:00

BUKO Stadion, Velsen-Zuid

Team news

Telstar

Top performers

  • T. OwusuTop scorer5 goals
  • P. BrouwerMost assists3 assists
  • R. KoemanBest rating7.39 avg

Unavailable

No reported injuries or suspensions.

PEC Zwolle

Top performers

  • K. KostonsTop scorer4 goals
  • D. MbayoMost assists4 assists
  • J. SchendelaarBest rating7.00 avg

Unavailable

  • F. KrastevAchilles Tendon InjuryOut
  • G. RahajaanInactiveOut
  • S. FloranusInjuryOut

Eredivisie table

#TeamPGDPts
12Sparta Rotterdam12-812
13PEC Zwolle12-1112
14Utrecht12-1312
15Excelsior12-1311
16Telstar12-710
17ADO Den Haag12-99

AI prediction

Telstar are slight favourites.

Our pick: Telstar 2-1 PEC Zwolle

43%Telstar win
25%Draw
31%PEC Zwolle win

Most likely scores

  • 1-110%
  • 2-19%Our pick
  • 2-28%
  • 1-26%
  • 3-15%

1-1 is the single likeliest score, but a Telstar win (43%) is likelier than a draw (25%), so we pick the likeliest score for a Telstar win.

How we predict this

Expected goals: Telstar 1.9, PEC Zwolle 1.7 - the average number of goals each side should score, from this season's results at home and away.

Our stats model alone gave 38% / 23% / 39% (Telstar / draw / PEC Zwolle); the odds of 8 bookmakers gave 45% / 26% / 29%. We combine the two, with the bookmakers counting for about 75%: odds also reflect injuries and team news.

Our pick is the likeliest score within the likeliest result, so it never contradicts the chances above.

How accurate are our predictions? See the record →

AI match preview

Key Factors
1Telstar's inconsistent home performance (1 win, 3 losses in 6 matches) despite higher expected goals.
2PEC Zwolle's away defensive record (10 conceded in 6 matches) compared to Telstar's home defense (17 conceded).
3Both teams' struggles with scoring in key matches (Telstar 4 matches without scoring at home, PEC Zwolle 4 away matches without scoring).
4The discrepancy between expected goals and historical results, which may reflect unaccounted variables like team motivation or tactical adjustments.
5Bookmaker odds' influence on the model's prediction, potentially reflecting factors beyond the provided statistics.
The model's preference for Telstar winning (43%) is influenced by their slightly higher expected goals (1.9 vs 1.7) and the weighting of bookmaker odds, which favor Telstar more heavily than the statistical model. However, Telstar's home record is inconsistent, with only 1 win in 6 matches and 3 losses, while conceding 17 goals at home. This suggests defensive vulnerabilities that could be exploited by PEC Zwolle, who have a better away defensive record (conceding 10 goals in 6 matches compared to Telstar's 17). PEC Zwolle's away form includes 3 draws and 1 win, indicating some resilience, but their low scoring (7 goals in 6 away games) may limit their ability to capitalize on Telstar's defensive lapses. The draw (25%) reflects the possibility of both teams failing to convert chances, given Telstar's 4 matches without scoring at home and PEC Zwolle's 4 away matches without scoring. A PEC Zwolle win (31%) hinges on their ability to maintain their away defensive structure while improving their scoring efficiency, which has been limited this season.