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Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29 - Ligue 1 prediction, preview and lineups

Ligue 1
Round 11
Strasbourg logo
Strasbourg13th · 10 ptsLWLLL
Sat 21 Nov19:45
Stade Brestois 29 logo
Stade Brestois 299th · 15 ptsWWLDW
Our prediction · 2-1Win · Draw · Win
42%25%33%

Sat 21 Nov 2026, 19:45

Stade de la Meinau, Strasbourg

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Team news

Strasbourg

Top performers

  • Gessime YassineTop scorer4 goals
  • S. NanasiMost assists3 assists
  • Gessime YassineBest rating7.33 avg

Unavailable

  • J. PanichelliJumpers KneeOut
Stade Brestois 29

Top performers

  • L. AjorqueTop scorer5 goals
  • H. MagnettiMost assists2 assists
  • L. AjorqueBest rating7.23 avg

Unavailable

  • B. ChardonnetCalf InjuryOut

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Ligue 1 table

#TeamPGDPts
8Rennes10016
9Stade Brestois 2910+615
10Lorient10+115
12Toulouse10+113
13Strasbourg10-410
14Auxerre10-1110

Sat 21 Nov 2026, 19:45

Stade de la Meinau, Strasbourg

Team news

Strasbourg

Top performers

  • Gessime YassineTop scorer4 goals
  • S. NanasiMost assists3 assists
  • Gessime YassineBest rating7.33 avg

Unavailable

  • J. PanichelliJumpers KneeOut
Stade Brestois 29

Top performers

  • L. AjorqueTop scorer5 goals
  • H. MagnettiMost assists2 assists
  • L. AjorqueBest rating7.23 avg

Unavailable

  • B. ChardonnetCalf InjuryOut

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPGDPts
8Rennes10016
9Stade Brestois 2910+615
10Lorient10+115
12Toulouse10+113
13Strasbourg10-410
14Auxerre10-1110

AI prediction

Strasbourg are slight favourites.

Our pick: Strasbourg 2-1 Stade Brestois 29

42%Strasbourg win
25%Draw
33%Stade Brestois 29 win

Most likely scores

  • 1-111%
  • 2-19%Our pick
  • 1-27%
  • 2-27%
  • 1-06%

1-1 is the single likeliest score, but a Strasbourg win (42%) is likelier than a draw (25%), so we pick the likeliest score for a Strasbourg win.

How we predict this

Expected goals: Strasbourg 1.7, Stade Brestois 29 1.5 - the average number of goals each side should score, from this season's results at home and away.

Our stats model alone gave 39% / 25% / 36% (Strasbourg / draw / Stade Brestois 29); the odds of 10 bookmakers gave 43% / 26% / 32%. We combine the two, with the bookmakers counting for about 75%: odds also reflect injuries and team news.

Our pick is the likeliest score within the likeliest result, so it never contradicts the chances above.

How accurate are our predictions? See the record →

AI match preview

Key Factors
1Strasbourg's home attacking output (9 goals in 4 games) versus Brestois' away efficiency (8 goals in 5 games).
2Strasbourg's home defense (6 conceded) compared to Brestois' away defense (6 conceded).
3Brestois' away clean sheets (2) and lower conceded goals (6) versus Strasbourg's lack of clean sheets at home.
4The disparity between Strasbourg's overall conceded goals (22) and Brestois' overall conceded goals (12).
5The model's weighting of bookmakers' odds (75%) versus statistical probabilities, which may reflect external factors like injuries or form trends not captured in the provided data.
The model's preference for Strasbourg at home is influenced by their stronger attacking output in domestic matches. Strasbourg has scored 9 goals in 4 home games, averaging 2.25 per game, compared to Brestois' 8 goals in 5 away games (1.6 per game). While both teams have similar overall goal statistics (18 scored, 12 conceded for Brestois vs 18 scored, 22 conceded for Strasbourg), Strasbourg's home defense (6 conceded) is more resilient than their overall record suggests. Brestois' away clean sheets (2) and lower conceded goals (6) indicate strong defensive organization, but their lack of a home advantage may limit their ability to dominate possession or create scoring chances. The model's slight edge for Strasbourg (42% vs 33% for Brestois) reflects the home team's higher scoring efficiency, though Brestois' away form and defensive solidity could lead to a draw or an upset. The lower probability of a Strasbourg clean sheet (0 at home) and their 2 failed-to-score games may increase the risk of a low-scoring draw, but their higher expected goals (1.7 vs 1.5) still favor them.