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Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar - Eredivisie prediction, preview and lineups

Eredivisie
Round 13
Sparta Rotterdam logo
Sparta Rotterdam12th · 12 ptsLWLWD
Sun 22 Nov13:30
AZ Alkmaar logo
AZ Alkmaar5th · 23 ptsWLLDL
Our prediction · 1-2Win · Draw · Win
24%23%53%

Sun 22 Nov 2026, 13:30

Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam

Loading analysis...

Team news

Sparta Rotterdam

Top performers

  • M. ZonneveldTop scorer9 goals
  • I. BabadiMost assists4 assists
  • M. ZonneveldBest rating7.50 avg

Unavailable

No reported injuries or suspensions.

AZ Alkmaar

Top performers

  • M. MeerdinkTop scorer9 goals
  • V. ByskovMost assists3 assists
  • R. DaalBest rating7.31 avg

Unavailable

  • H. VerhulstOff the rosterOut
  • J. HornkampInjuryOut
  • J. ZoetInactiveOut
  • K. SmitInjuryOut
  • S. ResinkKnee InjuryOut

Loading analysis...

Eredivisie table

#TeamPGDPts
4Twente12+1824
5AZ Alkmaar12+823
6Heerenveen12+821
11NEC Nijmegen12-114
12Sparta Rotterdam12-812
13PEC Zwolle12-1112

Sun 22 Nov 2026, 13:30

Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam

Team news

Sparta Rotterdam

Top performers

  • M. ZonneveldTop scorer9 goals
  • I. BabadiMost assists4 assists
  • M. ZonneveldBest rating7.50 avg

Unavailable

No reported injuries or suspensions.

AZ Alkmaar

Top performers

  • M. MeerdinkTop scorer9 goals
  • V. ByskovMost assists3 assists
  • R. DaalBest rating7.31 avg

Unavailable

  • H. VerhulstOff the rosterOut
  • J. HornkampInjuryOut
  • J. ZoetInactiveOut
  • K. SmitInjuryOut
  • S. ResinkKnee InjuryOut

Eredivisie table

#TeamPGDPts
4Twente12+1824
5AZ Alkmaar12+823
6Heerenveen12+821
11NEC Nijmegen12-114
12Sparta Rotterdam12-812
13PEC Zwolle12-1112

AI prediction

AZ Alkmaar are favourites.

Our pick: Sparta Rotterdam 1-2 AZ Alkmaar

24%Sparta Rotterdam win
23%Draw
53%AZ Alkmaar win

Most likely scores

  • 1-110%
  • 1-29%Our pick
  • 0-27%
  • 1-37%
  • 2-26%

1-1 is the single likeliest score, but an AZ Alkmaar win (53%) is likelier than a draw (23%), so we pick the likeliest score for an AZ Alkmaar win.

How we predict this

Expected goals: Sparta Rotterdam 1.4, AZ Alkmaar 2.1 - the average number of goals each side should score, from this season's results at home and away.

Our pick is the likeliest score within the likeliest result, so it never contradicts the chances above.

How accurate are our predictions? See the record →

AI match preview

Key Factors
1AZ Alkmaar's strong away record (3 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses) and higher away goal ratio (11 scored, 8 conceded) compared to Sparta's weak home defense (14 conceded in 6 games).
2Sparta Rotterdam's lack of clean sheets at home (0) and tendency to fail to score (2 games) versus AZ's ability to maintain defensive discipline (3 clean sheets).
3AZ's overall attacking efficiency (24 goals scored) versus Sparta's lower scoring output (21 goals) despite similar playing time.
4AZ's current form (WWWWWDWLDLLW) indicating consistency, while Sparta's form (LWDLDLLDWLWL) shows recent instability.
5The potential impact of home crowd support for Sparta, which could temporarily disrupt AZ's rhythm or motivate Sparta's players to perform above their usual level.
The model's prediction favors AZ Alkmaar due to their superior away performance and attacking efficiency compared to Sparta Rotterdam's inconsistent home record. AZ Alkmaar has scored 11 goals in 6 away games this season, averaging 1.83 per game, while conceding only 8, indicating a balanced away side capable of both scoring and defending. In contrast, Sparta Rotterdam's home form is dire, with 3 losses in their last 3 home games and 14 goals conceded in 6 matches, suggesting a porous defense that could struggle against AZ's attacking threat. AZ's overall record (24 scored, 16 conceded) further highlights their offensive strength, whereas Sparta's 21 scored and 29 conceded reflects a team that often fails to secure results despite creating chances. The expected goals (1.4 for Sparta, 2.1 for AZ) align with these trends, pointing to AZ's likelihood of dominating possession and scoring opportunities. However, Sparta's home crowd could provide a psychological boost, and if AZ's defense falters (they have 3 clean sheets but also 3 games where they failed to score), Sparta might capitalize on defensive errors. Similarly, if AZ's attacking players face unexpected resistance or injuries, Sparta's limited but occasionally effective home attacks could create upsets.