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Shakhtar Donetsk vs Fenerbahçe - Champions L. prediction, preview and lineups

Champions L.
League Stage - 5
Shakhtar Donetsk logo
Shakhtar Donetsk
Wed 25 Nov20:00
Fenerbahçe logo
Fenerbahçe
Our prediction · 2-1Win · Draw · Win
54%24%22%

Wed 25 Nov 2026, 20:00

Stamford Bridge, London

Loading analysis...

Team news

Shakhtar Donetsk

Top performers

  • Kauã EliasTop scorer3 goals
  • Alisson SantanaMost assists3 assists
  • Marlon GomesBest rating6.65 avg

Unavailable

No reported injuries or suspensions.

Fenerbahçe

Top performers

  • M. GreenwoodTop scorer10 goals
  • K. AktürkoğluMost assists6 assists
  • M. GreenwoodBest rating7.42 avg

Unavailable

No reported injuries or suspensions.

Loading analysis...

Wed 25 Nov 2026, 20:00

Stamford Bridge, London

Team news

Shakhtar Donetsk

Top performers

  • Kauã EliasTop scorer3 goals
  • Alisson SantanaMost assists3 assists
  • Marlon GomesBest rating6.65 avg

Unavailable

No reported injuries or suspensions.

Fenerbahçe

Top performers

  • M. GreenwoodTop scorer10 goals
  • K. AktürkoğluMost assists6 assists
  • M. GreenwoodBest rating7.42 avg

Unavailable

No reported injuries or suspensions.

AI prediction

Shakhtar Donetsk are favourites.

Our pick: Shakhtar Donetsk 2-1 Fenerbahçe

54%Shakhtar Donetsk win
24%Draw
22%Fenerbahçe win

Most likely scores

  • 1-111%
  • 2-110%Our pick
  • 2-08%
  • 1-08%
  • 3-16%

1-1 is the single likeliest score, but a Shakhtar Donetsk win (54%) is likelier than a draw (24%), so we pick the likeliest score for a Shakhtar Donetsk win.

How we predict this

Expected goals: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.9, Fenerbahçe 1.2 - the average number of goals each side should score, from this season's results at home and away.

Our pick is the likeliest score within the likeliest result, so it never contradicts the chances above.

How accurate are our predictions? See the record →

AI match preview

Key Factors
1Shakhtar Donetsk’s home attack (3 goals in 2 games) vs Fenerbahçe’s weak away defense (8 conceded in 4 games).
2Fenerbahçe’s current form (6 wins, 3 draws in last 10 games) and ability to keep clean sheets away (3 times).
3Shakhtar’s lack of clean sheets at home (0) and tendency to fail to score (2 of 4 matches).
4Fenerbahçe’s away goal-scoring (4 in 4 games) vs Shakhtar’s home goal-conceding (2 in 2 games).
5The model’s expected goals (1.9-1.2) reflecting Shakhtar’s home advantage and Fenerbahçe’s defensive frailties.
The model favors Shakhtar Donetsk due to their home advantage and Fenerbahçe’s inconsistent away defense. Shakhtar has scored 3 goals in 2 home games, averaging 1.5 per match, while Fenerbahçe has conceded 8 goals in 4 away games, averaging 2 per match. This suggests Shakhtar’s home attack could exploit Fenerbahçe’s porous away defense, which has only 3 clean sheets in 4 away games. However, Fenerbahçe’s current form (WDWWDWDLDW) indicates resilience, with 6 wins and 3 draws in their last 10 matches, and their ability to keep clean sheets away (3 times) might limit Shakhtar’s scoring opportunities. A draw or Fenerbahçe win could occur if they capitalize on Shakhtar’s lack of clean sheets (0 at home) and their tendency to fail to score in 2 of their last 4 matches. The expected goals (1.9 for Shakhtar, 1.2 for Fenerbahçe) align with Shakhtar’s stronger home attack and Fenerbahçe’s weaker away defense. However, Fenerbahçe’s recent away record shows they can be unpredictable, with 2 wins and 1 draw in 4 away games, which might lead to a more competitive match than the model anticipates. Shakhtar’s home record includes a loss, indicating they are not invincible, while Fenerbahçe’s away conceded goals (8) suggest vulnerabilities that could be exploited.