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Sassuolo vs Genoa - Serie A prediction, preview and lineups

Serie A
Round 12
Sassuolo logo
Sassuolo17th · 8 ptsLLLLL
Sun 22 Nov14:00
Genoa logo
Genoa13th · 13 ptsLWWWL
Our prediction · 2-1Win · Draw · Win
40%24%36%

Sun 22 Nov 2026, 14:00

Loading analysis...

Team news

Sassuolo

Top performers

  • Vasilije AdžićTop scorer4 goals
  • D. BakolaMost assists3 assists
  • A. LaurientéBest rating7.13 avg

Unavailable

  • D. BolocaMuscle BruiseOut
  • E. PieragnoloJumpers KneeOut
  • Fali CandéJumpers KneeOut
  • I. KonéBroken LegOut
  • Y. PazJumpers KneeOut
Genoa

Top performers

  • M. OsmajićTop scorer4 goals
  • S. El ShaarawyMost assists2 assists
  • Junior MessiasBest rating7.28 avg

Unavailable

  • L. VenturinoJumpers KneeOut

Loading analysis...

Serie A table

#TeamPGDPts
12Atalanta11-314
13Genoa11-513
14Lecce11-1010
16Parma11-88
17Sassuolo11-138
18Monza11-87

Sun 22 Nov 2026, 14:00

Team news

Sassuolo

Top performers

  • Vasilije AdžićTop scorer4 goals
  • D. BakolaMost assists3 assists
  • A. LaurientéBest rating7.13 avg

Unavailable

  • D. BolocaMuscle BruiseOut
  • E. PieragnoloJumpers KneeOut
  • Fali CandéJumpers KneeOut
  • I. KonéBroken LegOut
  • Y. PazJumpers KneeOut
Genoa

Top performers

  • M. OsmajićTop scorer4 goals
  • S. El ShaarawyMost assists2 assists
  • Junior MessiasBest rating7.28 avg

Unavailable

  • L. VenturinoJumpers KneeOut

Serie A table

#TeamPGDPts
12Atalanta11-314
13Genoa11-513
14Lecce11-1010
16Parma11-88
17Sassuolo11-138
18Monza11-87

AI prediction

Too close to call.

Our pick: Sassuolo 2-1 Genoa

40%Sassuolo win
24%Draw
36%Genoa win

Most likely scores

  • 1-110%
  • 2-18%Our pick
  • 1-28%
  • 2-27%
  • 2-05%

1-1 is the single likeliest score, but a Sassuolo win (40%) is likelier than a draw (24%), so we pick the likeliest score for a Sassuolo win.

How we predict this

Expected goals: Sassuolo 1.8, Genoa 1.7 - the average number of goals each side should score, from this season's results at home and away.

Our pick is the likeliest score within the likeliest result, so it never contradicts the chances above.

How accurate are our predictions? See the record →

AI match preview

Key Factors
1Sassuolo's home attacking efficiency versus Genoa's away defensive record.
2Sassuolo's poor home defense (14 goals conceded in 5 games) creating risks for a Genoa counterattack.
3Genoa's limited away scoring (3 goals in 4 games) potentially restricting their ability to capitalize on Sassuolo's defensive weaknesses.
4The frequency of failed scoring attempts (Sassuolo 2, Genoa 3) indicating potential for low-scoring outcomes.
5The absence of clean sheets for Sassuolo at home, suggesting a higher likelihood of goals being scored against them.
The model's prediction of a Sassuolo win at 40% reflects their stronger home attacking performance compared to Genoa's away record. Sassuolo has scored 10 goals in 5 home games (2 per game), while Genoa has managed only 3 in 4 away matches (0.75 per game). This suggests Sassuolo's home attack is more potent, even though their defense is vulnerable, conceding 14 goals in those same 5 games. Genoa's away defense, however, is more resilient, with 2 clean sheets and 6 goals conceded in 4 matches, indicating they may limit Sassuolo's scoring opportunities. The expected goals (1.8 for Sassuolo, 1.7 for Genoa) align with these trends, favoring Sassuolo's home attack but acknowledging Genoa's defensive solidity. A draw (24%) is plausible if both teams' weaker aspects dominate—Sassuolo's defensive lapses and Genoa's lack of away attacking consistency. A Genoa win (36%) could occur if their better away defense holds firm and their limited but effective counterattacks exploit Sassuolo's defensive frailties.