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Sao Paulo vs Fluminense - Serie A prediction, preview and lineups

Serie A
Round 35
Sao Paulo logo
Sao Paulo10th · 44 ptsDLDWW
Fri 20 Nov00:30
Fluminense logo
Fluminense4th · 57 ptsWWLLL
Our prediction · 1-0Win · Draw · Win
42%29%29%

Fri 20 Nov 2026, 00:30

Estadio Do MorumBIS, Sao Paulo

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Team news

Sao Paulo

Top performers

  • J. CalleriTop scorer16 goals
  • D. BobadillaMost assists6 assists
  • Domingos DuarteBest rating7.18 avg

Unavailable

No reported injuries or suspensions.

Fluminense

Top performers

  • John KennedyTop scorer14 goals
  • L. AcostaMost assists7 assists
  • Thiago SilvaBest rating7.30 avg

Unavailable

  • AlissonHip InjuryOut
  • IgnacioYellow CardsOut
  • J. MillanInactiveOut
  • John KennedyKnee InjuryOut
  • MartinelliInactiveOut
  • Matheus ReisKnee InjuryOut

Loading analysis...

Serie A table

#TeamPGDPts
3Cruzeiro34+760
4Fluminense34+1357
5Atletico Paranaense34+854
9Santos34+147
10Sao Paulo34044
11Vasco DA Gama34-544

Fri 20 Nov 2026, 00:30

Estadio Do MorumBIS, Sao Paulo

Team news

Sao Paulo

Top performers

  • J. CalleriTop scorer16 goals
  • D. BobadillaMost assists6 assists
  • Domingos DuarteBest rating7.18 avg

Unavailable

No reported injuries or suspensions.

Fluminense

Top performers

  • John KennedyTop scorer14 goals
  • L. AcostaMost assists7 assists
  • Thiago SilvaBest rating7.30 avg

Unavailable

  • AlissonHip InjuryOut
  • IgnacioYellow CardsOut
  • J. MillanInactiveOut
  • John KennedyKnee InjuryOut
  • MartinelliInactiveOut
  • Matheus ReisKnee InjuryOut

Serie A table

#TeamPGDPts
3Cruzeiro34+760
4Fluminense34+1357
5Atletico Paranaense34+854
9Santos34+147
10Sao Paulo34044
11Vasco DA Gama34-544

AI prediction

Sao Paulo are slight favourites.

Our pick: Sao Paulo 1-0 Fluminense

42%Sao Paulo win
29%Draw
29%Fluminense win

Most likely scores

  • 1-114%
  • 1-011%Our pick
  • 0-010%
  • 0-19%
  • 2-18%

1-1 is the single likeliest score, but a Sao Paulo win (42%) is likelier than a draw (29%), so we pick the likeliest score for a Sao Paulo win.

How we predict this

Expected goals: Sao Paulo 1.4, Fluminense 1.1 - the average number of goals each side should score, from this season's results at home and away.

Our stats model alone gave 46% / 29% / 25% (Sao Paulo / draw / Fluminense); the odds of 10 bookmakers gave 40% / 29% / 30%. We combine the two, with the bookmakers counting for about 75%: odds also reflect injuries and team news.

Our pick is the likeliest score within the likeliest result, so it never contradicts the chances above.

How accurate are our predictions? See the record →

AI match preview

Key Factors
1Sao Paulo's home defensive record (13 goals conceded in 17 games) versus Fluminense's away defensive weakness (25 goals conceded in 17 games).
2Sao Paulo's higher expected goals (1.4) compared to Fluminense's (1.1), reflecting their stronger home attacking performance.
3Fluminense's ability to draw away games (6 draws in 17 matches) could increase the likelihood of a draw despite their overall goal disadvantage.
4Sao Paulo's clean sheet record (8) at home versus Fluminense's lower away clean sheets (7) highlights defensive contrast.
5The discrepancy between statistical models and bookmakers' odds may indicate unaccounted variables, such as recent injuries or tactical adjustments not reflected in the provided data.
Sao Paulo's home performance in Serie A suggests a strong foundation for their current form. Their home record (10 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses) and defensive solidity (13 goals conceded in 17 games) indicate a team that can limit opponents effectively. Fluminense, while scoring more overall (55 goals), has struggled away from home, conceding 25 goals in 17 matches. This contrast in defensive efficiency at home and away could tilt the match in Sao Paulo's favor. The expected goals (1.4 for Sao Paulo, 1.1 for Fluminense) align with these trends, as Sao Paulo's home attacking output (25 goals in 17 games) outpaces Fluminense's away scoring (24 goals in 17 games). However, Fluminense's higher overall goal tally (55 vs 39) and their ability to draw games (6 draws away) suggest they are not without threat, though their away record may hinder their chances. The model's slight deviation from pure statistical odds (42% vs 46% for Sao Paulo) may reflect bookmakers' caution about Fluminense's potential to exploit defensive lapses or Sao Paulo's inconsistency in their current form (which includes 8 games without a win).