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Santos vs Gremio - Serie A prediction, preview and lineups

Serie A
Round 36
Santos logo
Santos9th · 47 ptsLDDWL
Tue 24 Nov00:00
Gremio logo
Gremio18th · 37 ptsLWWLD
Our prediction · 1-0Win · Draw · Win
50%30%21%

Tue 24 Nov 2026, 00:00

Estadio Urbano Caldeira, Santos

Loading analysis...

Team news

Santos

Top performers

  • Gabriel BarbosaTop scorer25 goals
  • Gabriel BarbosaMost assists10 assists
  • NeymarBest rating7.44 avg

Unavailable

No reported injuries or suspensions.

Gremio

Top performers

  • Carlos ViníciusTop scorer22 goals
  • F. AmuzuMost assists6 assists
  • WallaceBest rating7.31 avg

Unavailable

No reported injuries or suspensions.

Loading analysis...

Serie A table

#TeamPGDPts
8RB Bragantino34+547
9Santos34+147
10Sao Paulo34044
17Corinthians34-637
18Gremio34-937
19Remo34-2029

Tue 24 Nov 2026, 00:00

Estadio Urbano Caldeira, Santos

Team news

Santos

Top performers

  • Gabriel BarbosaTop scorer25 goals
  • Gabriel BarbosaMost assists10 assists
  • NeymarBest rating7.44 avg

Unavailable

No reported injuries or suspensions.

Gremio

Top performers

  • Carlos ViníciusTop scorer22 goals
  • F. AmuzuMost assists6 assists
  • WallaceBest rating7.31 avg

Unavailable

No reported injuries or suspensions.

Serie A table

#TeamPGDPts
8RB Bragantino34+547
9Santos34+147
10Sao Paulo34044
17Corinthians34-637
18Gremio34-937
19Remo34-2029

AI prediction

Santos are favourites.

Our pick: Santos 1-0 Gremio

50%Santos win
30%Draw
21%Gremio win

Most likely scores

  • 1-015%Our pick
  • 1-113%
  • 0-012%
  • 2-011%
  • 2-19%
How we predict this

Expected goals: Santos 1.4, Gremio 0.8 - the average number of goals each side should score, from this season's results at home and away.

Our pick is the likeliest score within the likeliest result, so it never contradicts the chances above.

How accurate are our predictions? See the record →

AI match preview

Key Factors
1Santos’ home form and ability to score (23 goals in 17 games) versus Gremio’s away defensive frailty (26 conceded in 17 games).
2Gremio’s tendency to fail to score away (10 instances) compared to Santos’ home reliability (only 4 failed-to-score games).
3Santos’ clean sheets (7 at home) versus Gremio’s away clean sheets (8), though Gremio’s conceded goals are significantly higher.
4The contrast in away performance: Santos’ 6 home wins versus Gremio’s 1 away win.
5Expected goal differential (1.4-0.8) reflecting Santos’ attacking edge and Gremio’s defensive vulnerabilities.
The model favors Santos due to their strong home performance and Gremio’s weak away record. Santos have a solid home record (6 wins, 7 draws, 4 losses) with 23 goals scored and 21 conceded, indicating a balanced attack and defense. Their home clean sheets (7) and ability to score suggest they can control games. Gremio, in contrast, struggles away (1 win, 5 draws, 11 losses) with only 11 goals scored and 26 conceded, highlighting a porous defense and inconsistent attack. The expected goals (1.4-0.8) align with Santos’ home superiority and Gremio’s away frailty. The most likely score (1-0) reflects Santos’ capacity to capitalize on Gremio’s defensive weaknesses. However, Gremio’s 8 clean sheets away could hint at occasional resilience, while Santos’ 4 failed-to-score games at home show they are not infallible. A draw might occur if Gremio’s defense holds firm or Santos’ attack falters. A Gremio win would require an unlikely defensive collapse by Santos and a rare away performance from Gremio, given their historical struggles.