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Paris Saint Germain vs AS Roma - Champions L. prediction, preview and lineups

Champions L.
League Stage - 5
Paris Saint Germain logo
Paris Saint Germain
Wed 25 Nov20:00
AS Roma logo
AS Roma
Our prediction · 3-1Win · Draw · Win
67%16%17%

Wed 25 Nov 2026, 20:00

Parc des Princes, Paris

Loading analysis...

Team news

Paris Saint Germain

Top performers

  • Ferran TorresTop scorer7 goals
  • O. DembéléMost assists6 assists
  • O. DembéléBest rating7.47 avg

Unavailable

  • K. KvaratskheliaJumpers KneeOut
  • MarquinhosThigh ProblemsOut
  • Nuno MendesMuscle BruiseOut
  • O. DembéléThigh ProblemsOut
AS Roma

Top performers

  • D. MalenTop scorer12 goals
  • M. SouléMost assists5 assists
  • P. DybalaBest rating7.61 avg

Unavailable

No reported injuries or suspensions.

Loading analysis...

Wed 25 Nov 2026, 20:00

Parc des Princes, Paris

Team news

Paris Saint Germain

Top performers

  • Ferran TorresTop scorer7 goals
  • O. DembéléMost assists6 assists
  • O. DembéléBest rating7.47 avg

Unavailable

  • K. KvaratskheliaJumpers KneeOut
  • MarquinhosThigh ProblemsOut
  • Nuno MendesMuscle BruiseOut
  • O. DembéléThigh ProblemsOut
AS Roma

Top performers

  • D. MalenTop scorer12 goals
  • M. SouléMost assists5 assists
  • P. DybalaBest rating7.61 avg

Unavailable

No reported injuries or suspensions.

AI prediction

Paris Saint Germain are clear favourites.

Our pick: Paris Saint Germain 3-1 AS Roma

67%Paris Saint Germain win
16%Draw
17%AS Roma win

Most likely scores

  • 3-17%Our pick
  • 2-17%
  • 3-26%
  • 4-16%
  • 2-26%
How we predict this

Expected goals: Paris Saint Germain 3.1, AS Roma 1.6 - the average number of goals each side should score, from this season's results at home and away.

Our pick is the likeliest score within the likeliest result, so it never contradicts the chances above.

How accurate are our predictions? See the record →

AI match preview

Key Factors
1PSG's home advantage and strong attacking record (10 goals in 2 home games)
2Roma's weak away defense (4 goals conceded in 2 away games)
3PSG's overall goal-scoring efficiency (20 goals in 4 games) compared to Roma's (10 goals in 4 games)
4Roma's inconsistent current form (DLWL) versus PSG's perfect home record (WW)
5The disparity in expected goals (3.1 for PSG vs 1.6 for Roma) reflecting attacking and defensive metrics
The model's strong preference for Paris Saint Germain stems from their dominant home form and superior attacking output in the Champions League. PSG has won both of their home matches in this competition, scoring 10 goals while conceding only 3, indicating a potent attack and relatively solid defense. Their overall record of 20 goals scored in 4 games further highlights their offensive capabilities. In contrast, AS Roma's away performance is concerning, with just 3 goals scored and 4 conceded in their two Champions League away games. Their current form (DLWL) and lower goal output (10 scored, 8 conceded overall) suggest inconsistency and a weaker defensive structure when playing away. The expected goals (3.1 for PSG, 1.6 for Roma) align with these trends, reflecting PSG's attacking dominance and Roma's defensive vulnerabilities. However, Roma could disrupt this outcome if they improve their away defensive organization or if PSG's attack falters, though the latter is unlikely given their recent home form.