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Newcastle vs Everton - Premier League prediction, preview and lineups

Premier LeaguePremier League
Round 9
Newcastle logoNewcastle(Pos. 11)
VS
2 Nov 202620:00
Everton logoEverton(Pos. 8)

2 Nov 2026, 20:00

St. James' Park, Newcastle

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AI Pre-Match Analysis

Score Prediction
1-0
Confidence
Low37%
Result probabilities
37%Newcastle
29%Draw
35%Everton

Expected goals 1.3 – 1.3

Score probabilities
Most likely: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 0-0 (9%)
Everton goals
012345+
Newcastle goals099631
1914831
278521
33421
4111
5+

% chance of each score. Blue Newcastle win, grey draw, amber Everton win; darker is likelier. Outlined: our predicted score.

Key Factors
1Newcastle's home attacking output (6 goals in 4 games) versus Everton's away defensive record (3 clean sheets in 3 games).
2Everton's historical difficulty in scoring away goals (3 scored in 3 games) compared to Newcastle's home goal-scoring efficiency.
3The balance between Newcastle's home defensive frailties (6 conceded in 4 games) and Everton's away defensive strength.
4The overall form of both teams, with Newcastle's mixed results (DWDLWLL) and Everton's more consistent away performance (WDDDWDL).
5The likelihood of a low-scoring encounter, given the similar expected goals (1.3 each) and the defensive focus of both sides.
The model's prediction of a closely contested match reflects the statistical parity between the teams. Newcastle's home record shows a mixed but functional performance, with 6 goals scored in 4 games, suggesting an attacking threat at St. James' Park. However, their home defense has been porous, conceding 6 goals in the same number of games, which could leave them vulnerable. Everton's away record is more consistent defensively, with 3 clean sheets in 3 games, but their lack of away goals (3 scored in 3 games) indicates a potential struggle to break down opponents. This defensive solidity for Everton could limit Newcastle's chances of scoring, but their own attacking inefficiency might lead to draws if neither side can capitalize on opportunities. The model's slight edge to Newcastle likely stems from their home advantage and higher goal-scoring rate in domestic matches, despite their inconsistent form. A low-scoring game, such as the predicted 1-0, seems plausible due to both teams' defensive tendencies, though Everton's away resilience could prolong the match.
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