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NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven - Eredivisie prediction, preview and lineups

Eredivisie
Round 13
NEC Nijmegen logo
NEC Nijmegen11th · 14 ptsWLDDD
Sat 21 Nov15:30
PSV Eindhoven logo
PSV Eindhoven1st · 26 ptsWWDLW
Our prediction · 1-2Win · Draw · Win
23%21%56%

Sat 21 Nov 2026, 15:30

Goffertstadion, Nijmegen

Loading analysis...

Team news

NEC Nijmegen

Top performers

  • T. CheryTop scorer7 goals
  • D. TadićMost assists4 assists
  • D. NejašmićBest rating7.10 avg

Unavailable

  • A. TahauiOff the rosterOut
  • B. NuytinckAnkle InjuryOut
  • D. GeigerInjuryOut
  • D. TadicCalf InjuryOut
  • E. MorGroin InjuryOut
  • I. Hansen-AaroenOff the rosterOut
  • M. BakkerOff the rosterOut
  • P. SandlerInjuryOut
PSV Eindhoven

Top performers

  • S. MijnansTop scorer9 goals
  • E. BajraktarevicMost assists5 assists
  • S. DestBest rating7.25 avg

Unavailable

No reported injuries or suspensions.

Loading analysis...

Eredivisie table

#TeamPGDPts
1PSV Eindhoven12+2526
2Feyenoord12+1925
10Cambuur12-215
11NEC Nijmegen12-114
12Sparta Rotterdam12-812

Sat 21 Nov 2026, 15:30

Goffertstadion, Nijmegen

Team news

NEC Nijmegen

Top performers

  • T. CheryTop scorer7 goals
  • D. TadićMost assists4 assists
  • D. NejašmićBest rating7.10 avg

Unavailable

  • A. TahauiOff the rosterOut
  • B. NuytinckAnkle InjuryOut
  • D. GeigerInjuryOut
  • D. TadicCalf InjuryOut
  • E. MorGroin InjuryOut
  • I. Hansen-AaroenOff the rosterOut
  • M. BakkerOff the rosterOut
  • P. SandlerInjuryOut
PSV Eindhoven

Top performers

  • S. MijnansTop scorer9 goals
  • E. BajraktarevicMost assists5 assists
  • S. DestBest rating7.25 avg

Unavailable

No reported injuries or suspensions.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPGDPts
1PSV Eindhoven12+2526
2Feyenoord12+1925
10Cambuur12-215
11NEC Nijmegen12-114
12Sparta Rotterdam12-812

AI prediction

PSV Eindhoven are clear favourites.

Our pick: NEC Nijmegen 1-2 PSV Eindhoven

23%NEC Nijmegen win
21%Draw
56%PSV Eindhoven win

Most likely scores

  • 1-27%Our pick
  • 1-17%
  • 2-27%
  • 1-37%
  • 2-15%
How we predict this

Expected goals: NEC Nijmegen 1.6, PSV Eindhoven 2.6 - the average number of goals each side should score, from this season's results at home and away.

Our stats model alone gave 20% / 19% / 61% (NEC Nijmegen / draw / PSV Eindhoven); the odds of 8 bookmakers gave 24% / 22% / 54%. We combine the two, with the bookmakers counting for about 75%: odds also reflect injuries and team news.

Our pick is the likeliest score within the likeliest result, so it never contradicts the chances above.

How accurate are our predictions? See the record →

AI match preview

Key Factors
1PSV's strong away form (4 wins in 6 games, 19 goals scored) versus NEC's poor home record (0 wins in 6 games, 12 goals conceded).
2PSV's away defensive consistency (2 clean sheets) compared to NEC's home defensive frailty (no clean sheets, 2 failed to score).
3PSV's higher expected goals (2.6) reflecting their attacking dominance, which may overwhelm NEC's home defense.
4NEC's ability to score away from home (20 goals in 12 games) versus their inability to do so at home (9 goals in 6 games).
5The disparity in goal-scoring efficiency: PSV's 40 goals in 12 games versus NEC's 20, indicating a significant gap in overall quality.
The model's strong preference for PSV Eindhoven is driven by their dominant away performance, which contrasts sharply with NEC Nijmegen's historically weak home record. PSV has won 4 of their 6 away games this season, scoring 19 goals and conceding only 10, including 2 clean sheets. This suggests a disciplined and effective away side capable of maintaining pressure. NEC, by contrast, has failed to win any of their 6 home games, with 4 draws and 2 losses, scoring just 9 goals while conceding 12. Their lack of home wins and frequent failures to score (2 instances) highlight vulnerabilities that PSV's attacking prowess (2.6 expected goals) may exploit. However, NEC's overall scoring output (20 goals in 12 games) indicates they are not entirely incapable of creating chances, though their home defense remains a concern. The model's emphasis on bookmakers' odds (weighted 75%) suggests market confidence in PSV's superiority, though NEC's potential to capitalize on PSV's occasional defensive lapses could theoretically lead to an upset.