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Napoli vs Torino - Serie A prediction, preview and lineups

Serie A
Round 12
Napoli logo
Napoli10th · 15 ptsDLWDL
Sat 21 Nov19:45
Torino logo
Torino11th · 14 ptsDLLWW
Our prediction · 2-1Win · Draw · Win
58%23%19%

Sat 21 Nov 2026, 19:45

Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples

DAZN GermanyDAZN ItaliaDAZN SpainDAZN SwitzerlandDAZN Austria

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Team news

Napoli

Top performers

  • S. McTominayTop scorer5 goals
  • M. PolitanoMost assists4 assists
  • S. McTominayBest rating7.16 avg

Unavailable

  • A. BuongiornoJumpers KneeOut
Torino

Top performers

  • C. AdamsTop scorer4 goals
  • R. BelghaliMost assists3 assists
  • Saúl CocoBest rating6.88 avg

Unavailable

  • P. PellegriJumpers KneeOut

Loading analysis...

Serie A table

#TeamPGDPts
9Cagliari11-516
10Napoli11+415
11Torino11-214
12Atalanta11-314

Sat 21 Nov 2026, 19:45

Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples

DAZN GermanyDAZN ItaliaDAZN SpainDAZN SwitzerlandDAZN Austria

Team news

Napoli

Top performers

  • S. McTominayTop scorer5 goals
  • M. PolitanoMost assists4 assists
  • S. McTominayBest rating7.16 avg

Unavailable

  • A. BuongiornoJumpers KneeOut
Torino

Top performers

  • C. AdamsTop scorer4 goals
  • R. BelghaliMost assists3 assists
  • Saúl CocoBest rating6.88 avg

Unavailable

  • P. PellegriJumpers KneeOut

Serie A table

#TeamPGDPts
9Cagliari11-516
10Napoli11+415
11Torino11-214
12Atalanta11-314

AI prediction

Napoli are clear favourites.

Our pick: Napoli 2-1 Torino

58%Napoli win
23%Draw
19%Torino win

Most likely scores

  • 2-113%Our pick
  • 1-012%
  • 1-111%
  • 2-010%
  • 3-16%
How we predict this

Expected goals: Napoli 1.8, Torino 1.1 - the average number of goals each side should score, from this season's results at home and away.

Our stats model alone gave 41% / 27% / 32% (Napoli / draw / Torino); the odds of 10 bookmakers gave 64% / 21% / 15%. We combine the two, with the bookmakers counting for about 75%: odds also reflect injuries and team news.

Our pick is the likeliest score within the likeliest result, so it never contradicts the chances above.

How accurate are our predictions? See the record →

AI match preview

Key Factors
1Napoli's home performance (9 goals scored, 6 conceded) versus Torino's away record (7 goals scored, 6 conceded).
2Expected goal difference (Napoli 1.8 vs Torino 1.0), reflecting Napoli's stronger attacking and defensive metrics at home.
3Clean sheet statistics (Napoli 3 vs Torino 1), indicating Napoli's home defense may limit Torino's scoring opportunities.
4Current form discrepancies (Napoli's WLLWDWLDWLD vs Torino's LLWLDWWWLLD), though less impactful than home/away data.
5Bookmakers' odds weighting (75%) versus statistical model, suggesting external factors like morale or injuries may influence outcomes.
Napoli's home form suggests a strong foundation for their 58% chance of winning, as they have scored 9 goals in 5 home games while conceding only 6. This aligns with their expected goals (1.8) and indicates a defensive structure that has managed 3 clean sheets this season. Torino's away record, though not as dominant, shows resilience with 2 wins and 1 draw in 5 games, but their lower expected goals (1.0) and higher conceded goals (6 in 5 away matches) suggest vulnerabilities. The model's preference for Napoli is reinforced by their superior home performance, but the lower statistical probability (41%) compared to bookmakers' odds (64%) may reflect unquantified factors like recent injuries or tactical adjustments. A draw (23%) remains plausible if Torino's away defense holds firm or Napoli's attack struggles to convert chances. Torino's 19% win chance hinges on replicating their away wins, but their weaker away goal ratio (1.4 per game) versus Napoli's home efficiency (1.8) makes this less likely.