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Monaco vs Auxerre - Ligue 1 prediction, preview and lineups

Ligue 1
Round 11
Monaco logo
Monaco7th · 16 ptsDLDLD
Sat 21 Nov19:45
Auxerre logo
Auxerre14th · 10 ptsLLDWL
Our prediction · 2-1Win · Draw · Win
68%19%14%

Sat 21 Nov 2026, 19:45

Stade Louis II, Monaco

Ligue1+DAZN GermanyDAZN SpainDAZN SwitzerlandDAZN Austria

Loading analysis...

Team news

Monaco

Top performers

  • Paris Josua BrunnerTop scorer8 goals
  • A. GolovinMost assists3 assists
  • L. HrádeckýBest rating7.37 avg

Unavailable

  • Ansu FatiHamstring InjuryOut
  • S. Idumbo-MuzamboGroin InjuryOut
Auxerre

Top performers

  • C. ArcherTop scorer6 goals
  • R. FaivreMost assists3 assists
  • C. ArcherBest rating7.20 avg

Unavailable

  • A. DiousséJumpers KneeOut
  • B. OkohJumpers KneeOut

Loading analysis...

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPGDPts
6Nice10+317
7Monaco10+216
8Rennes10016
13Strasbourg10-410
14Auxerre10-1110
15Le Mans10-78

Sat 21 Nov 2026, 19:45

Stade Louis II, Monaco

Ligue1+DAZN GermanyDAZN SpainDAZN SwitzerlandDAZN Austria

Team news

Monaco

Top performers

  • Paris Josua BrunnerTop scorer8 goals
  • A. GolovinMost assists3 assists
  • L. HrádeckýBest rating7.37 avg

Unavailable

  • Ansu FatiHamstring InjuryOut
  • S. Idumbo-MuzamboGroin InjuryOut
Auxerre

Top performers

  • C. ArcherTop scorer6 goals
  • R. FaivreMost assists3 assists
  • C. ArcherBest rating7.20 avg

Unavailable

  • A. DiousséJumpers KneeOut
  • B. OkohJumpers KneeOut

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPGDPts
6Nice10+317
7Monaco10+216
8Rennes10016
13Strasbourg10-410
14Auxerre10-1110
15Le Mans10-78

AI prediction

Monaco are clear favourites.

Our pick: Monaco 2-1 Auxerre

68%Monaco win
19%Draw
14%Auxerre win

Most likely scores

  • 2-18%Our pick
  • 3-18%
  • 1-17%
  • 2-06%
  • 3-06%
How we predict this

Expected goals: Monaco 2.8, Auxerre 1.3 - the average number of goals each side should score, from this season's results at home and away.

Our stats model alone gave 69% / 17% / 15% (Monaco / draw / Auxerre); the odds of 10 bookmakers gave 67% / 19% / 14%. We combine the two, with the bookmakers counting for about 75%: odds also reflect injuries and team news.

Our pick is the likeliest score within the likeliest result, so it never contradicts the chances above.

How accurate are our predictions? See the record →

AI match preview

Key Factors
1Monaco’s home defensive resilience (4 goals conceded in 4 matches) versus Auxerre’s away defensive collapse (18 goals conceded in 5 matches).
2Monaco’s current form (5 wins in 10 games) compared to Auxerre’s recent poor run (only 2 wins in 10 games).
3Expected goal differential (Monaco 2.8, Auxerre 1.3), reflecting Monaco’s stronger home attacking output.
4Auxerre’s ability to score in away games (8 goals in 5 matches) despite their overall poor away record.
5Monaco’s clean sheet frequency (2 in 4 home games) versus Auxerre’s low away clean sheets (1 in 5 games).
The model favors Monaco due to their strong home performance and Auxerre's poor away record. Monaco has maintained a clean sheet in 50% of their home games this season, conceding only 4 goals in 4 matches, while Auxerre has conceded 18 goals in 5 away games, indicating significant defensive vulnerabilities. Monaco’s current form (WWWDWDLDLD) suggests consistency, whereas Auxerre’s recent struggles (LLLWWLWDLL) highlight instability. The expected goals (2.8 for Monaco, 1.3 for Auxerre) align with these trends, as Monaco’s home attacking efficiency contrasts with Auxerre’s away frailty. However, Auxerre’s ability to score 8 goals in 5 away games could limit Monaco’s dominance if they manage to capitalize on defensive lapses. Additionally, Monaco’s single failed-to-score game at home might hint at occasional struggles, though their overall record remains favorable.