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Lorient vs Rennes - Ligue 1 prediction, preview and lineups

Ligue 1
Round 11
Lorient logo
Lorient10th · 15 ptsWLDWW
Sun 22 Nov16:15
Rennes logo
Rennes8th · 16 ptsLLWLW
Our prediction · 2-1Win · Draw · Win
50%23%27%

Sun 22 Nov 2026, 16:15

Stade du Moustoir, Lorient

Loading analysis...

Team news

Lorient

Top performers

  • J. MakengoTop scorer2 goals
  • P. KatserisMost assists3 assists
  • S. TouréBest rating7.29 avg

Unavailable

  • B. FadigaMuscle BruiseOut
  • I. BaldéAchilles Tendon ProblemsOut
  • P. KatserisMuscle BruiseOut
Rennes

Top performers

  • E. LepaulTop scorer7 goals
  • B. ReynoldsMost assists3 assists
  • B. SambaBest rating7.12 avg

Unavailable

  • E. LepaulSprained AnkleOut

Loading analysis...

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPGDPts
7Monaco10+216
8Rennes10016
9Stade Brestois 2910+615
10Lorient10+115
11Lens10+213

Sun 22 Nov 2026, 16:15

Stade du Moustoir, Lorient

Team news

Lorient

Top performers

  • J. MakengoTop scorer2 goals
  • P. KatserisMost assists3 assists
  • S. TouréBest rating7.29 avg

Unavailable

  • B. FadigaMuscle BruiseOut
  • I. BaldéAchilles Tendon ProblemsOut
  • P. KatserisMuscle BruiseOut
Rennes

Top performers

  • E. LepaulTop scorer7 goals
  • B. ReynoldsMost assists3 assists
  • B. SambaBest rating7.12 avg

Unavailable

  • E. LepaulSprained AnkleOut

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPGDPts
7Monaco10+216
8Rennes10016
9Stade Brestois 2910+615
10Lorient10+115
11Lens10+213

AI prediction

Lorient are favourites.

Our pick: Lorient 2-1 Rennes

50%Lorient win
23%Draw
27%Rennes win

Most likely scores

  • 1-110%
  • 2-19%Our pick
  • 2-27%
  • 1-27%
  • 2-06%

1-1 is the single likeliest score, but a Lorient win (50%) is likelier than a draw (23%), so we pick the likeliest score for a Lorient win.

How we predict this

Expected goals: Lorient 2.0, Rennes 1.5 - the average number of goals each side should score, from this season's results at home and away.

Our pick is the likeliest score within the likeliest result, so it never contradicts the chances above.

How accurate are our predictions? See the record →

AI match preview

Key Factors
1Lorient's home defense (6 goals conceded in 5 games) versus Rennes' away defense (14 goals conceded in 4 games).
2Lorient's home scoring efficiency (5 goals in 5 games) compared to Rennes' away scoring (7 goals in 4 games).
3Rennes' overall attacking capability (21 goals in 10 games) versus their away defensive frailty.
4Lorient's inconsistency in home games (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses) and Rennes' away form (1 win, 3 losses).
5The historical frequency of Lorient failing to score (3 times in 10 games) and Rennes' away clean sheets (only 2 in 10 games).
The model's prediction of a Lorient win (50%) is influenced by their stronger home performance compared to Rennes' weak away record. Lorient has scored 5 goals in 5 home games, averaging 1 goal per game, while Rennes has only managed 7 goals in 4 away matches, averaging 1.75 goals per game. However, Lorient's home defense is vulnerable, conceding 6 goals in those same 5 games, which could allow Rennes to capitalize on opportunities. Rennes' overall attacking strength (21 goals in 10 games) suggests they have the firepower to threaten Lorient, but their away defense (14 goals conceded in 4 games) indicates significant weaknesses that may lead to a higher-than-expected number of goals for Lorient. The draw (23%) is plausible if both teams fail to convert chances effectively, particularly given Lorient's history of failing to score in 3 of their 10 games and Rennes' away struggles to maintain clean sheets. Rennes' win (27%) would require them to overcome their away defensive issues while avoiding Lorient's home advantage, which has historically led to 2 wins and 1 draw for Lorient in their last 5 home games.