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Lille vs Lyon - Ligue 1 prediction, preview and lineups

Ligue 1
Round 11
Lille logo
Lille2nd · 21 ptsWWDDW
Sat 21 Nov19:45
Lyon logo
Lyon5th · 17 ptsLWLWL
Our prediction · 1-0Win · Draw · Win
43%29%28%

Sat 21 Nov 2026, 19:45

Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille

Loading analysis...

Team news

Lille

Top performers

  • A. UedaTop scorer3 goals
  • M. KjærgaardMost assists2 assists
  • S. DiaouneBest rating7.20 avg

Unavailable

  • A. UedaFoot InjuryOut
  • H. IgamaneJumpers KneeOut
  • Tiago SantosJumpers KneeOut
Lyon

Top performers

  • E. NuamahTop scorer6 goals
  • C. TolissoMost assists5 assists
  • E. NuamahBest rating7.31 avg

Unavailable

  • L. OpendaLeg InjuryOut
  • M. OuédraogoJumpers KneeOut
  • P. ŠulcJumpers KneeOut
  • Steeve KangoConcussionOut
  • T. MortonGroin InjuryOut

Loading analysis...

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain10+1223
2Lille10+721
3Paris FC10+720
4Marseille10+818
5Lyon10+617
6Nice10+317

Sat 21 Nov 2026, 19:45

Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille

Team news

Lille

Top performers

  • A. UedaTop scorer3 goals
  • M. KjærgaardMost assists2 assists
  • S. DiaouneBest rating7.20 avg

Unavailable

  • A. UedaFoot InjuryOut
  • H. IgamaneJumpers KneeOut
  • Tiago SantosJumpers KneeOut
Lyon

Top performers

  • E. NuamahTop scorer6 goals
  • C. TolissoMost assists5 assists
  • E. NuamahBest rating7.31 avg

Unavailable

  • L. OpendaLeg InjuryOut
  • M. OuédraogoJumpers KneeOut
  • P. ŠulcJumpers KneeOut
  • Steeve KangoConcussionOut
  • T. MortonGroin InjuryOut

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain10+1223
2Lille10+721
3Paris FC10+720
4Marseille10+818
5Lyon10+617
6Nice10+317

AI prediction

Lille are slight favourites.

Our pick: Lille 1-0 Lyon

43%Lille win
29%Draw
28%Lyon win

Most likely scores

  • 1-015%Our pick
  • 0-015%
  • 0-113%
  • 1-112%
  • 2-010%
How we predict this

Expected goals: Lille 1.1, Lyon 0.8 - the average number of goals each side should score, from this season's results at home and away.

Our stats model alone gave 51% / 31% / 18% (Lille / draw / Lyon); the odds of 10 bookmakers gave 40% / 28% / 31%. We combine the two, with the bookmakers counting for about 75%: odds also reflect injuries and team news.

Our pick is the likeliest score within the likeliest result, so it never contradicts the chances above.

How accurate are our predictions? See the record →

AI match preview

Key Factors
1Lille's home defensive record (5 clean sheets in 5 games) and consistent scoring at home (7 goals in 5 matches).
2Lyon's poor away performance (3 wins in 5 away games, 3 scored, 6 conceded) and lower expected goals (0.8) compared to Lille's 1.1.
3The discrepancy between Lyon's overall strength (15 goals scored in 10 games) and their away-specific struggles, which may not be fully reflected in the model's adjusted odds.
4Bookmakers' odds weighting (75% influence) potentially accounting for intangible factors like team morale or recent injuries not captured in the provided statistics.
5Lille's perfect home record (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses) versus Lyon's inconsistent away form, which could lead to a low-scoring game favoring Lille's defensive structure.
Lille's strong home record is a critical factor in the model's favoring of their win. At home, they have not lost any of their five matches this season, scoring 7 goals while conceding only 3. This defensive solidity, combined with their 100% home win rate, suggests they are likely to dominate possession and limit Lyon's chances. Lyon, on the other hand, struggles significantly away from home, with just 1 win in their last 5 away games. Their away record (3 scored, 6 conceded) highlights defensive vulnerabilities, which could be exploited by Lille's attacking efficiency. The expected goals (1.1 for Lille vs 0.8 for Lyon) further reinforce this dynamic, pointing to Lille's higher likelihood of scoring and Lyon's potential difficulty in breaking down Lille's defense. However, Lyon's overall strength in the league (15 goals scored in 10 games) could provide a counterbalance if they manage to adapt to Lille's home setup. A draw remains plausible due to Lyon's ability to score (despite their away struggles) and Lille's occasional defensive lapses, though their clean sheet record (5 in 5 home games) suggests this is less likely. Lyon's win probability is slightly higher in the model's adjusted odds, but their away form and low expected goals make this outcome the least statistically supported.