NextMatch.net

Smart Live Scores • Standings • AI Predictions

All⚽Football🏀Basketball
My teamsLeaguesNews sourcesAI prediction record
Theme

Lens vs Toulouse - Ligue 1 prediction, preview and lineups

Ligue 1
Round 11
Lens logo
Lens11th · 13 ptsLLWWW
Sat 21 Nov19:45
Toulouse logo
Toulouse12th · 13 ptsWLDWD
Our prediction · 2-1Win · Draw · Win
49%24%27%

Sat 21 Nov 2026, 19:45

Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens

Ligue1+DAZN GermanyDAZN SpainDAZN SwitzerlandDAZN Austria

Loading analysis...

Team news

Lens

Top performers

  • F. ThauvinTop scorer7 goals
  • F. ThauvinMost assists8 assists
  • F. ThauvinBest rating7.52 avg

Unavailable

  • A. SimaMuscle BruiseOut
  • I. GaniouJumpers KneeOut
  • M. NawrockiJumpers KneeOut
  • O. ÉdouardGroin InjuryOut
Toulouse

Top performers

  • C. TengstedtTop scorer5 goals
  • C. CásseresMost assists6 assists
  • C. CásseresBest rating7.79 avg

Unavailable

  • A. DønnumYellow CardOut
  • M. AmougouEscape ClauseOut
  • R. MessaliThigh ProblemsOut
  • M. NifloreKnee InjuryDoubtful

Loading analysis...

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPGDPts
10Lorient10+115
11Lens10+213
12Toulouse10+113
13Strasbourg10-410

Sat 21 Nov 2026, 19:45

Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens

Ligue1+DAZN GermanyDAZN SpainDAZN SwitzerlandDAZN Austria

Team news

Lens

Top performers

  • F. ThauvinTop scorer7 goals
  • F. ThauvinMost assists8 assists
  • F. ThauvinBest rating7.52 avg

Unavailable

  • A. SimaMuscle BruiseOut
  • I. GaniouJumpers KneeOut
  • M. NawrockiJumpers KneeOut
  • O. ÉdouardGroin InjuryOut
Toulouse

Top performers

  • C. TengstedtTop scorer5 goals
  • C. CásseresMost assists6 assists
  • C. CásseresBest rating7.79 avg

Unavailable

  • A. DønnumYellow CardOut
  • M. AmougouEscape ClauseOut
  • R. MessaliThigh ProblemsOut
  • M. NifloreKnee InjuryDoubtful

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPGDPts
10Lorient10+115
11Lens10+213
12Toulouse10+113
13Strasbourg10-410

AI prediction

Lens are favourites.

Our pick: Lens 2-1 Toulouse

49%Lens win
24%Draw
27%Toulouse win

Most likely scores

  • 1-110%
  • 2-110%Our pick
  • 2-27%
  • 2-06%
  • 3-16%

1-1 is the single likeliest score, but a Lens win (49%) is likelier than a draw (24%), so we pick the likeliest score for a Lens win.

How we predict this

Expected goals: Lens 1.9, Toulouse 1.5 - the average number of goals each side should score, from this season's results at home and away.

Our stats model alone gave 42% / 24% / 34% (Lens / draw / Toulouse); the odds of 10 bookmakers gave 51% / 25% / 24%. We combine the two, with the bookmakers counting for about 75%: odds also reflect injuries and team news.

Our pick is the likeliest score within the likeliest result, so it never contradicts the chances above.

How accurate are our predictions? See the record →

AI match preview

Key Factors
1Lens’s home attacking efficiency (10 goals in 5 games) versus Toulouse’s away defensive record (2 clean sheets in 5 games).
2Lens’s tendency to fail to score (2 instances) and Toulouse’s frequent failure to score away (4 instances).
3Toulouse’s ability to draw games away (3 draws in 5 matches) versus Lens’s lack of draws at home (0 in 5 games).
Lens holds a clear advantage at home, evidenced by their 3 wins in 5 matches this season, scoring 10 goals while conceding only 7. This contrasts sharply with Toulouse’s away record, where they have just 1 win in 5 games, scoring 9 but conceding 8. Lens’s higher expected goals (2.0 vs. 1.5) aligns with their stronger home attacking output, while Toulouse’s 2 clean sheets away may hint at defensive resilience. However, Toulouse’s ability to draw games (3 draws in 5 away matches) could increase the likelihood of a draw, though their overall goal-scoring (15 in 10 games) remains slightly lower than Lens’s 17. The model’s preference for Lens reflects their superior home form and higher expected goals, but Toulouse’s defensive consistency and Lens’s occasional failure to score (2 instances) could create opportunities for the away team.