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Groningen vs Heerenveen - Eredivisie prediction, preview and lineups

Eredivisie
Round 13
Groningen logo
Groningen9th · 15 ptsLLDLW
Sat 21 Nov20:00
Heerenveen logo
Heerenveen6th · 21 ptsWWWWL
Our prediction · 1-2Win · Draw · Win
37%24%39%

Sat 21 Nov 2026, 20:00

Euroborg, Groningen

Loading analysis...

Team news

Groningen

Top performers

  • B. WillumssonTop scorer9 goals
  • D. van der WerffMost assists3 assists
  • B. WillumssonBest rating7.43 avg

Unavailable

No reported injuries or suspensions.

Heerenveen

Top performers

  • J. TrenskowTop scorer7 goals
  • L. SmansMost assists4 assists
  • J. TrenskowBest rating7.51 avg

Unavailable

No reported injuries or suspensions.

Loading analysis...

Eredivisie table

#TeamPGDPts
5AZ Alkmaar12+823
6Heerenveen12+821
7Fortuna Sittard12020
8GO Ahead Eagles12-317
9Groningen12+115
10Cambuur12-215

Sat 21 Nov 2026, 20:00

Euroborg, Groningen

Team news

Groningen

Top performers

  • B. WillumssonTop scorer9 goals
  • D. van der WerffMost assists3 assists
  • B. WillumssonBest rating7.43 avg

Unavailable

No reported injuries or suspensions.

Heerenveen

Top performers

  • J. TrenskowTop scorer7 goals
  • L. SmansMost assists4 assists
  • J. TrenskowBest rating7.51 avg

Unavailable

No reported injuries or suspensions.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPGDPts
5AZ Alkmaar12+823
6Heerenveen12+821
7Fortuna Sittard12020
8GO Ahead Eagles12-317
9Groningen12+115
10Cambuur12-215

AI prediction

Too close to call.

Our pick: Groningen 1-2 Heerenveen

37%Groningen win
24%Draw
39%Heerenveen win

Most likely scores

  • 2-28%
  • 1-18%
  • 2-17%
  • 1-26%Our pick
  • 3-25%

2-2 is the single likeliest score, but a Heerenveen win (39%) is likelier than a draw (24%), so we pick the likeliest score for a Heerenveen win.

How we predict this

Expected goals: Groningen 2.0, Heerenveen 2.1 - the average number of goals each side should score, from this season's results at home and away.

Our stats model alone gave 32% / 21% / 48% (Groningen / draw / Heerenveen); the odds of 8 bookmakers gave 39% / 25% / 36%. We combine the two, with the bookmakers counting for about 75%: odds also reflect injuries and team news.

Our pick is the likeliest score within the likeliest result, so it never contradicts the chances above.

How accurate are our predictions? See the record →

AI match preview

Key Factors
1Groningen's home defensive record (14 goals conceded in 6 games) could be exploited by Heerenveen's away attacking efficiency.
2Heerenveen's away clean sheets (5 in 5 games) suggest a disciplined defensive approach, which may limit Groningen's scoring chances.
3Heerenveen's history of failing to score away (3 instances) introduces a risk factor if Groningen's home defense remains unstable.
4Expected goals (2.0 for Groningen, 2.1 for Heerenveen) indicate a high-scoring match, but Heerenveen's away form may provide a slight edge in converting chances.
5The balance between Groningen's overall scoring (29 goals) and Heerenveen's away defense (8 conceded) could determine the outcome.
The model's prediction reflects a close contest, with Heerenveen slightly favored despite Groningen's home advantage. Groningen's home record this season is mixed, with only 2 wins in 6 games and a defensive vulnerability (14 goals conceded at home). While their overall scoring (29 goals) is strong, their home attack (13 goals in 6 games) is less consistent. Heerenveen, by contrast, has shown resilience away from home, with 5 clean sheets in 5 games and a solid defensive record (8 goals conceded). Their away scoring (11 goals in 5 games) averages 2.2 per game, suggesting they can break down weaker defenses. However, Heerenveen's 3 instances of failing to score away could be a risk if Groningen's home defense (14 conceded) remains porous. The draw probability (24%) is lower than the statistical model's 21%, indicating bookmakers slightly favor a decisive result, possibly due to Heerenveen's away consistency. A Groningen win (37%) would require exploiting Heerenveen's away defensive lapses, while a Heerenveen victory (39%) hinges on their ability to maintain their strong away form.