Result probabilities
41%Getafe
29%Draw
30%Sevilla
Expected goals 1.4 – 1.1
Score probabilities
Most likely: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%) | | Sevilla goals |
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| | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ |
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| Getafe goals | 0 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
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| 1 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
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| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | | |
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| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | | |
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| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | | | |
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| 5+ | | | | | | |
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% chance of each score. Blue Getafe win, grey draw, amber Sevilla win; darker is likelier. Outlined: our predicted score.
1Getafe's home defensive record (3 goals conceded in 5 matches) versus Sevilla's away defensive record (9 goals conceded in 5 matches).
2Getafe's ability to score at home (5 goals in 5 matches) compared to Sevilla's away scoring efficiency (9 goals in 5 matches).
3Getafe's tendency to fail to score in 4 of their 9 matches, which could lead to a draw or Sevilla win if their attack stagnates.
4Sevilla's away clean sheets (2) and their capacity to maintain defensive discipline despite their high away goal-conceding total.
5The expected goals differential (Getafe 1.4 vs Sevilla 1.1), which suggests a slight edge for Getafe in creating scoring chances.
The model's prediction favors Getafe winning due to their strong home performance, where they have maintained a 2-3-0 record (2 wins, 3 draws) in 5 matches, scoring 5 goals and conceding only 3. This suggests a resilient defensive structure at home, supported by 2 clean sheets, which contrasts with Sevilla's away record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, where they have conceded 9 goals in 5 matches. While Sevilla's away attack has been prolific (9 goals scored), their defensive vulnerabilities away from home may be exploited by Getafe's more consistent home defense. Getafe's expected goals (1.4) also slightly edge Sevilla's (1.1), indicating a potential advantage in scoring opportunities at home. However, Getafe's tendency to fail to score in 4 of their 9 matches this season introduces a risk, as does Sevilla's ability to score away (9 goals in 5 matches), which could lead to a draw or a Sevilla win if Getafe's attacking efficiency falters.
The draw probability (29%) reflects the possibility of both teams adopting cautious tactics, particularly given Getafe's history of failing to score and Sevilla's away defense conceding 9 goals in 5 matches. A low-scoring game (e.g., 1-0) aligns with Getafe's home defensive solidity and Sevilla's away defensive inconsistencies. Conversely, Sevilla's win (30%) hinges on their ability to maintain their away attacking output while limiting Getafe's chances, which could happen if Getafe's home defense struggles or if Sevilla's midfield dominance disrupts Getafe's play.
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