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FC Schalke 04 vs VfB Stuttgart - Bundesliga prediction, preview and lineups

Bundesliga
Round 10
FC Schalke 04 logo
FC Schalke 0417th · 6 ptsLLDLL
Sat 21 Nov17:30
VfB Stuttgart logo
VfB Stuttgart8th · 12 ptsWWLLW
Our prediction · 0-1Win · Draw · Win
26%25%49%

Sat 21 Nov 2026, 17:30

Veltins Arena, Gelsenkirchen

Sky Sport Bundesliga 1DAZN SpainDAZN PortugalTring Sport 3Viaplay Denmark

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Team news

FC Schalke 04

Top performers

  • E. DžekoTop scorer2 goals
  • A. GantenbeinMost assists1 assist
  • L. KariusBest rating7.30 avg

Unavailable

No reported injuries or suspensions.

VfB Stuttgart

Top performers

  • E. DemirovićTop scorer9 goals
  • D. UndavMost assists5 assists
  • M. MittelstädtBest rating7.63 avg

Unavailable

No reported injuries or suspensions.

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Bundesliga table

#TeamPGDPts
7SV Elversberg9-113
8VfB Stuttgart9012
91899 Hoffenheim9-112
16Union Berlin9-147
17FC Schalke 049-66
18Borussia Mönchengladbach9-134

Sat 21 Nov 2026, 17:30

Veltins Arena, Gelsenkirchen

Sky Sport Bundesliga 1DAZN SpainDAZN PortugalTring Sport 3Viaplay Denmark

Team news

FC Schalke 04

Top performers

  • E. DžekoTop scorer2 goals
  • A. GantenbeinMost assists1 assist
  • L. KariusBest rating7.30 avg

Unavailable

No reported injuries or suspensions.

VfB Stuttgart

Top performers

  • E. DemirovićTop scorer9 goals
  • D. UndavMost assists5 assists
  • M. MittelstädtBest rating7.63 avg

Unavailable

No reported injuries or suspensions.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPGDPts
7SV Elversberg9-113
8VfB Stuttgart9012
91899 Hoffenheim9-112
16Union Berlin9-147
17FC Schalke 049-66
18Borussia Mönchengladbach9-134

AI prediction

VfB Stuttgart are favourites.

Our pick: FC Schalke 04 0-1 VfB Stuttgart

26%FC Schalke 04 win
25%Draw
49%VfB Stuttgart win

Most likely scores

  • 0-115%Our pick
  • 1-112%
  • 1-210%
  • 0-010%
  • 0-210%
How we predict this

Expected goals: FC Schalke 04 0.9, VfB Stuttgart 1.3 - the average number of goals each side should score, from this season's results at home and away.

Our stats model alone gave 31% / 31% / 38% (FC Schalke 04 / draw / VfB Stuttgart); the odds of 9 bookmakers gave 24% / 23% / 52%. We combine the two, with the bookmakers counting for about 75%: odds also reflect injuries and team news.

Our pick is the likeliest score within the likeliest result, so it never contradicts the chances above.

How accurate are our predictions? See the record →

AI match preview

Key Factors
1Schalke 04's home performance (0 wins, 0 goals scored) versus VfB Stuttgart's away scoring efficiency (8 goals in 5 matches).
2The disparity in expected goals (0.9 vs 1.3) reflecting Schalke's struggles to score and Stuttgart's attacking consistency.
3Schalke's defensive record (3 clean sheets at home) potentially limiting Stuttgart's chances, though their conceded goals (3) suggest vulnerability.
4VfB Stuttgart's away conceded goals (10) indicating defensive lapses that could be exploited by Schalke's limited attacking options.
5The weighting of bookmakers' odds (52% for Stuttgart) over statistical models (38% for Stuttgart), which may underrepresent Schalke's home defensive resilience.
The model's preference for a VfB Stuttgart win (49%) and a low-scoring outcome (0-1) stems from contrasting home and away statistics. Schalke 04's home record is dire, with 0 wins, 2 losses, and 0 goals scored in 4 matches, suggesting a lack of offensive potency and defensive instability in their own stadium. Conversely, VfB Stuttgart's away performance, while not flawless, includes 2 wins and 8 goals scored in 5 matches, indicating a more consistent attacking threat on the road. The expected goals (0.9 for Schalke, 1.3 for Stuttgart) align with these trends, favoring Stuttgart's ability to create chances despite their away conceded goals (10). However, Schalke's 3 clean sheets at home hint at defensive organization, which could limit Stuttgart's scoring opportunities. The lower probability of a Schalke win (26%) reflects their inability to score at home, while the draw (25%) may arise if both teams' defensive tendencies neutralize each other, though this is less likely given Stuttgart's higher expected goals.