Result probabilities
50%FC Augsburg
24%Draw
27%SC Freiburg
Expected goals 1.9 – 1.3
Score probabilities
Most likely: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 2-0 (7%) | | SC Freiburg goals |
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| | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ |
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| FC Augsburg goals | 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
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| 1 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
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| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
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| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
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| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | | |
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| 5+ | 1 | 2 | 1 | | | |
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% chance of each score. Blue FC Augsburg win, grey draw, amber SC Freiburg win; darker is likelier. Outlined: our predicted score.
1FC Augsburg's home attacking efficiency (7 goals in 3 games) versus SC Freiburg's away defensive resilience (2 clean sheets in 3 games).
2Freiburg's overall goal-scoring ability (15 goals in 6 games) compared to their away performance (4 goals in 3 games).
3Augsburg's defensive consistency at home (4 goals conceded in 3 games) versus Freiburg's away vulnerability (4 goals conceded in 3 games).
4The impact of current form: Freiburg's recent three wins versus Augsburg's mixed results.
5Expected goal differential (1.9-1.3) reflecting the model's assessment of both teams' attacking and defensive capabilities at this venue.
The statistical model favors FC Augsburg's home win due to their stronger performance at this venue compared to SC Freiburg's away record. Augsburg has scored 7 goals in 3 home matches, averaging 2.33 per game, while conceding only 4. This suggests a balanced attack and reasonably solid defense at home. In contrast, Freiburg's away record shows a more cautious approach, scoring 4 goals in 3 away games but also conceding 4, indicating a less dominant attacking presence and slightly more vulnerability defensively. The expected goals (1.9 for Augsburg, 1.3 for Freiburg) align with these trends, reflecting Augsburg's higher offensive output and Freiburg's more conservative away performance. The most likely score of 2-1 underscores the model's belief in Augsburg's ability to capitalize on home advantage while limiting Freiburg's scoring opportunities.
However, the model's confidence in Augsburg's win is not absolute. Freiburg's away clean sheets (2 in 3 games) suggest they can maintain defensive discipline, which might lead to a draw if Augsburg's attack fails to break through. Additionally, Freiburg's overall league performance (15 goals scored in 6 games) indicates a potent attacking squad, which could challenge Augsburg's home defense if Freiburg's away form improves. Conversely, Augsburg's home record includes only 1 win and 2 draws, meaning they may struggle to convert their home advantage into decisive victories consistently.
The model's probabilities also reflect the historical context of both teams. Freiburg's current form (WWWDWL) includes three consecutive wins, which could boost their confidence, but their away record lacks the same intensity as their home performances. Augsburg's mixed form (WWDLDL) suggests inconsistency, but their home record provides a stable foundation. The key will be whether Augsburg can sustain their home attacking momentum while Freiburg's away defense holds firm.
How accurate are our predictions? See the record →
Bundesliga
