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Estac Troyes vs Le Havre - Ligue 1 prediction, preview and lineups

Ligue 1
Round 11
Estac Troyes logo
Estac Troyes17th · 8 ptsLWDLL
Fri 20 Nov19:45
Le Havre logo
Le Havre18th · 2 ptsLLLLL
Our prediction · 2-1Win · Draw · Win
42%26%32%

Fri 20 Nov 2026, 19:45

Stade de l'Aube, Troyes

Ligue1+DAZN GermanyDAZN SpainDAZN SwitzerlandDAZN Austria

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Team news

Estac Troyes

Top performers

  • I. BouraTop scorer1 goal
  • T. NkadaMost assists1 assist
  • A. MilleBest rating6.90 avg

Unavailable

  • Y. KoneJumpers KneeOut
Le Havre

Top performers

  • J. MajaTop scorer4 goals
  • K. MizutaMost assists1 assist
  • J. MajaBest rating6.82 avg

Unavailable

  • F. MambimbiAchilles Tendon ProblemsOut
  • Stephan ZagadouJumpers KneeOut

Loading analysis...

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPGDPts
16Angers10-108
17Estac Troyes10-108
18Le Havre10-132

Fri 20 Nov 2026, 19:45

Stade de l'Aube, Troyes

Ligue1+DAZN GermanyDAZN SpainDAZN SwitzerlandDAZN Austria

Team news

Estac Troyes

Top performers

  • I. BouraTop scorer1 goal
  • T. NkadaMost assists1 assist
  • A. MilleBest rating6.90 avg

Unavailable

  • Y. KoneJumpers KneeOut
Le Havre

Top performers

  • J. MajaTop scorer4 goals
  • K. MizutaMost assists1 assist
  • J. MajaBest rating6.82 avg

Unavailable

  • F. MambimbiAchilles Tendon ProblemsOut
  • Stephan ZagadouJumpers KneeOut

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPGDPts
16Angers10-108
17Estac Troyes10-108
18Le Havre10-132

AI prediction

Estac Troyes are slight favourites.

Our pick: Estac Troyes 2-1 Le Havre

42%Estac Troyes win
26%Draw
32%Le Havre win

Most likely scores

  • 1-111%
  • 2-110%Our pick
  • 2-28%
  • 1-26%
  • 1-06%

1-1 is the single likeliest score, but an Estac Troyes win (42%) is likelier than a draw (26%), so we pick the likeliest score for an Estac Troyes win.

How we predict this

Expected goals: Estac Troyes 1.8, Le Havre 1.7 - the average number of goals each side should score, from this season's results at home and away.

Our stats model alone gave 30% / 24% / 47% (Estac Troyes / draw / Le Havre); the odds of 10 bookmakers gave 46% / 27% / 27%. We combine the two, with the bookmakers counting for about 75%: odds also reflect injuries and team news.

Our pick is the likeliest score within the likeliest result, so it never contradicts the chances above.

How accurate are our predictions? See the record →

AI match preview

Key Factors
1Estac Troyes’ home defensive record (3 clean sheets in 5 games) versus Le Havre’s away conceded goals (9 in 4 games).
2Le Havre’s poor away form (0 wins in 4 games) and high away concession rate (9 goals).
3Expected goal totals (1.8 for Troyes, 1.7 for Le Havre) indicating a closely contested match.
4Troyes’ tendency to fail to score (6 games) and Le Havre’s occasional away scoring (6 goals in 4 games).
5The discrepancy between the statistical model (favoring Le Havre 47%) and the odds-driven prediction (favoring Troyes 42%), suggesting potential undervaluation of Le Havre’s away struggles in the model.
The model's preference for Estac Troyes to win (42%) is influenced by their home performance, where they have managed 3 clean sheets despite a mixed record (1W, 1D, 3L). While their home attack is modest (5 goals in 5 games), their defensive resilience in home matches may provide a slight edge over Le Havre, who have struggled away from home (0 wins in 4 games, 9 goals conceded). Le Havre’s away record is particularly concerning, with 3 losses and 1 draw, and their tendency to concede (9 goals in 4 away games) suggests vulnerability. However, Troyes’ overall inconsistency (7 goals scored in 10 games) and high concession rate (17 goals) mean a draw or Le Havre win remains plausible, especially if Troyes’ home defense falters again. The model’s alignment with bookmakers’ odds (weighted 75%) suggests external factors (e.g., market sentiment) may overvalue Troyes’ home advantage despite their lackluster attacking record.