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Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras - Serie A prediction, preview and lineups

Serie A
Round 35
Cruzeiro logo
Cruzeiro3rd · 60 ptsWWWWL
Wed 18 Nov23:30
Palmeiras logo
Palmeiras2nd · 73 ptsWDWWW
Our prediction · 0-1Win · Draw · Win
31%28%41%

Wed 18 Nov 2026, 23:30

Estádio Mineirão, Belo Horizonte

A. Daronco

Loading analysis...

Team news

Cruzeiro

Top performers

  • Kaio JorgeTop scorer17 goals
  • Matheus PereiraMost assists11 assists
  • Matheus PereiraBest rating7.36 avg

Unavailable

  • Felipe MoraisMuscle InjuryOut
  • Gabriel PecBroken LegOut
  • L. SinisterraMuscle InjuryOut
  • L. VillalbaYellow CardsOut
  • Matheus PereiraYellow CardsOut
  • William FurtadoYellow CardsOut
  • Joao MarceloInjuryDoubtful
Palmeiras

Top performers

  • J. LópezTop scorer24 goals
  • J. LópezMost assists14 assists
  • Marlon FreitasBest rating7.16 avg

Unavailable

  • JefteKnee InjuryOut
  • PaulinhoCalf InjuryOut
  • R. SosaMuscle InjuryOut

Loading analysis...

Serie A table

#TeamPGDPts
1Flamengo34+4276
2Palmeiras34+3973
3Cruzeiro34+760
4Fluminense34+1357

Wed 18 Nov 2026, 23:30

Estádio Mineirão, Belo Horizonte

A. Daronco

Team news

Cruzeiro

Top performers

  • Kaio JorgeTop scorer17 goals
  • Matheus PereiraMost assists11 assists
  • Matheus PereiraBest rating7.36 avg

Unavailable

  • Felipe MoraisMuscle InjuryOut
  • Gabriel PecBroken LegOut
  • L. SinisterraMuscle InjuryOut
  • L. VillalbaYellow CardsOut
  • Matheus PereiraYellow CardsOut
  • William FurtadoYellow CardsOut
  • Joao MarceloInjuryDoubtful
Palmeiras

Top performers

  • J. LópezTop scorer24 goals
  • J. LópezMost assists14 assists
  • Marlon FreitasBest rating7.16 avg

Unavailable

  • JefteKnee InjuryOut
  • PaulinhoCalf InjuryOut
  • R. SosaMuscle InjuryOut

Serie A table

#TeamPGDPts
1Flamengo34+4276
2Palmeiras34+3973
3Cruzeiro34+760
4Fluminense34+1357

AI prediction

Palmeiras are slight favourites.

Our pick: Cruzeiro 0-1 Palmeiras

31%Cruzeiro win
28%Draw
41%Palmeiras win

Most likely scores

  • 1-113%
  • 0-111%Our pick
  • 0-010%
  • 1-010%
  • 0-28%

1-1 is the single likeliest score, but a Palmeiras win (41%) is likelier than a draw (28%), so we pick the likeliest score for a Palmeiras win.

How we predict this

Expected goals: Cruzeiro 1.1, Palmeiras 1.3 - the average number of goals each side should score, from this season's results at home and away.

Our stats model alone gave 25% / 29% / 45% (Cruzeiro / draw / Palmeiras); the odds of 10 bookmakers gave 33% / 27% / 40%. We combine the two, with the bookmakers counting for about 75%: odds also reflect injuries and team news.

Our pick is the likeliest score within the likeliest result, so it never contradicts the chances above.

How accurate are our predictions? See the record →

AI match preview

Key Factors
1Palmeiras' away record (8 wins, 7 draws, 2 losses) and low goals conceded (12) compared to Cruzeiro's home goals conceded (18).
2Expected goals (1.3 for Palmeiras vs. 1.0 for Cruzeiro), indicating a slight edge in offensive threat for the visitors.
3Cruzeiro's home clean sheets (8) versus Palmeiras' away clean sheets (16), highlighting defensive reliability for both but stronger for Palmeiras.
4Palmeiras' overall goal-scoring (62) versus Cruzeiro's (55), suggesting a more potent attacking unit for the visitors.
5Cruzeiro's recent form (ending with multiple wins) could boost confidence, but Palmeiras' consistency in away games may counteract this.
The model's preference for Palmeiras (41%) is influenced by their dominant away record, which includes 8 wins, 7 draws, and only 2 losses in 17 matches, scoring 26 goals while conceding just 12. This contrasts with Cruzeiro's home form, which, while solid (10 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses in 17 games), has been less consistent defensively (18 goals conceded at home). Palmeiras' away clean sheets (16) and low goal-conceding rate suggest a stronger ability to maintain defensive stability, aligning with the expected goals (1.3 for Palmeiras vs. 1.0 for Cruzeiro). However, Cruzeiro's recent form (ending with multiple wins) and their home scoring efficiency (30 goals in 17 games) could create opportunities for them to secure a result, though the model's odds-weighted prediction leans toward Palmeiras. The draw (28%) reflects the possibility of both teams' defensive strengths limiting scoring, but Palmeiras' superior away performance makes their win more statistically probable.