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Botafogo vs Sao Paulo - Serie A prediction, preview and lineups

Serie A
Round 36
Botafogo logo
Botafogo12th · 42 ptsWLLWD
Mon 23 Nov23:00
Sao Paulo logo
Sao Paulo10th · 44 ptsDLDWW
Our prediction · 1-0Win · Draw · Win
50%27%23%

Mon 23 Nov 2026, 23:00

Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro

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Team news

Botafogo

Top performers

  • Danilo SantosTop scorer13 goals
  • Alex TellesMost assists7 assists
  • Danilo SantosBest rating7.27 avg

Unavailable

No reported injuries or suspensions.

Sao Paulo

Top performers

  • J. CalleriTop scorer16 goals
  • D. BobadillaMost assists6 assists
  • Domingos DuarteBest rating7.18 avg

Unavailable

No reported injuries or suspensions.

Loading analysis...

Serie A table

#TeamPGDPts
9Santos34+147
10Sao Paulo34044
11Vasco DA Gama34-544
12Botafogo34-742
13Coritiba34-1142

Mon 23 Nov 2026, 23:00

Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro

Team news

Botafogo

Top performers

  • Danilo SantosTop scorer13 goals
  • Alex TellesMost assists7 assists
  • Danilo SantosBest rating7.27 avg

Unavailable

No reported injuries or suspensions.

Sao Paulo

Top performers

  • J. CalleriTop scorer16 goals
  • D. BobadillaMost assists6 assists
  • Domingos DuarteBest rating7.18 avg

Unavailable

No reported injuries or suspensions.

Serie A table

#TeamPGDPts
9Santos34+147
10Sao Paulo34044
11Vasco DA Gama34-544
12Botafogo34-742
13Coritiba34-1142

AI prediction

Botafogo are favourites.

Our pick: Botafogo 1-0 Sao Paulo

50%Botafogo win
27%Draw
23%Sao Paulo win

Most likely scores

  • 1-113%
  • 1-011%Our pick
  • 2-010%
  • 2-19%
  • 0-09%

1-1 is the single likeliest score, but a Botafogo win (50%) is likelier than a draw (27%), so we pick the likeliest score for a Botafogo win.

How we predict this

Expected goals: Botafogo 1.6, Sao Paulo 1.0 - the average number of goals each side should score, from this season's results at home and away.

Our pick is the likeliest score within the likeliest result, so it never contradicts the chances above.

How accurate are our predictions? See the record →

AI match preview

Key Factors
1Botafogo's home attacking efficiency (27 goals in 17 games) versus Sao Paulo's weak away scoring (14 goals in 17 games).
2Botafogo's home defensive record (22 conceded) compared to Sao Paulo's away defensive vulnerability (26 conceded).
3Sao Paulo's ability to maintain clean sheets away (8) versus Botafogo's tendency to fail to score at home (8 instances).
4The contrast between Botafogo's 7 home wins and Sao Paulo's 2 away wins in the same number of matches.
5Expected goal difference (1.6-1.0) reflecting Botafogo's model-based advantage in this venue.
Botafogo's home form suggests a stronger foundation for the match, with 7 wins and 6 draws in 17 games, compared to Sao Paulo's poor away record of 2 wins and 11 losses in the same number of fixtures. Botafogo's home attack (27 goals) outperforms Sao Paulo's away attack (14 goals), while their defensive record at home (22 conceded) is better than Sao Paulo's away defense (26 conceded). The model's 50% probability for Botafogo reflects their home advantage and superior attacking efficiency in this venue. Sao Paulo's ability to maintain clean sheets away (8) could limit Botafogo's scoring opportunities, but their low goal output (14 goals) may hinder their ability to capitalize on chances. A draw is plausible if Sao Paulo's defensive resilience neutralizes Botafogo's home attack, though Botafogo's higher expected goals (1.6 vs 1.0) suggest a higher likelihood of a one-goal margin. Sao Paulo's win probability hinges on overcoming Botafogo's home defense and scoring against a team that has conceded 22 goals at home, a task made harder by their own low away scoring.