Result probabilities
73%Barcelona
17%Draw
11%Alaves
Expected goals 2.6 – 0.9
Score probabilities
Most likely: 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 3-0 (9%) | | Alaves goals |
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| | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ |
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| Barcelona goals | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | | | |
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| 1 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 1 | | |
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| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | | |
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| 3 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | | |
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| 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | | |
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| 5+ | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | | |
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% chance of each score. Blue Barcelona win, grey draw, amber Alaves win; darker is likelier. Outlined: our predicted score.
1Barcelona’s perfect home record and high goal-scoring rate at Camp Nou.
2Alaves’ poor away performance, including zero wins and a weak defensive record.
3The significant expected goals gap (2.6 for Barcelona vs 0.9 for Alaves).
4Barcelona’s clean sheet consistency at home (4 in 4 games).
5Alaves’ tendency to fail to score in away games (2 instances in 4 games).
The statistical model strongly favors Barcelona due to their dominant home performance and Alaves' weak away record. Barcelona’s perfect home record (4 wins from 4 games) with 17 goals scored and only 4 conceded highlights their attacking efficiency and defensive solidity at Camp Nou. Their overall form of 9 consecutive wins further underscores their current dominance, while Alaves’ away struggles—0 wins from 4 games, 3 goals scored, and 5 conceded—suggest they are unlikely to challenge Barcelona effectively. The expected goals (2.6 for Barcelona vs 0.9 for Alaves) align with these trends, as Barcelona’s home attack is clearly superior. However, less likely outcomes could arise if Alaves exploit defensive lapses by Barcelona, though their poor away scoring record (only 3 goals in 4 games) makes this improbable. Additionally, if Barcelona’s attack falters or their defense faces pressure, Alaves might secure a draw or even a rare away win, but the model’s probabilities reflect the overwhelming home advantage and Barcelona’s current form.
How accurate are our predictions? See the record →
La Liga
