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Aston Villa vs Fulham - Premier League prediction, preview and lineups

Premier LeaguePremier League
Round 9
Aston Villa logoAston Villa(Pos. 12)
VS
31 Oct 202620:00
Fulham logoFulham(Pos. 18)

31 Oct 2026, 20:00

Villa Park, Birmingham

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AI Pre-Match Analysis

Score Prediction
1-0
Confidence
Low38%
Result probabilities
38%Aston Villa
32%Draw
31%Fulham

Expected goals 1.1 – 1.0

Score probabilities
Most likely: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (13%), 1-0 (13%)
Fulham goals
012345+
Aston Villa goals0131162
11314721
28841
3331
411
5+

% chance of each score. Blue Aston Villa win, grey draw, amber Fulham win; darker is likelier. Outlined: our predicted score.

Key Factors
1Aston Villa’s home attack vs. Fulham’s away defense (Villa’s 7 goals in 7 games vs. Fulham’s 1 goal in 3 away games).
2Both teams’ defensive vulnerabilities (Villa conceded 5 at home; Fulham conceded 3 away).
3Expected goals differential (Villa’s 1.1 vs. Fulham’s 1.0).
4Fulham’s poor away form (LLLDDLW) and limited scoring ability in away games.
5Clean sheet records (both teams have 2 clean sheets, but Villa’s home defense has failed to score in 3 games).
The statistical model favors Aston Villa winning due to their slightly higher expected goals (1.1 vs. 1.0) and their home advantage, despite their poor recent home record (3 games, 0 wins, 2 losses). While Aston Villa’s home defense has conceded 5 goals in 3 games, their overall attack (7 goals in 7 games) may still pose a threat to Fulham’s away defense, which has conceded 3 goals in 3 away games. Fulham’s away form (LLLDDLW) and their inability to score consistently (1 goal in 3 away games) suggest they may struggle to break down Villa’s home attack, even if Villa’s defense is weak. However, the model’s low probability of a Fulham win (30%) reflects their poor away record and limited scoring ability. A draw (32%) is plausible if both teams’ defensive frailties lead to a low-scoring game, though Villa’s slight edge in expected goals suggests they are more likely to score the decisive goal.
How accurate are our predictions? See the record →