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Alaves vs Deportivo La Coruna - La Liga prediction, preview and lineups

La Liga
Round 13
Alaves logo
Alaves12th · 13 ptsDLDLL
Sat 21 Nov13:00
Deportivo La Coruna logo
Deportivo La Coruna9th · 15 ptsDWLDL
Our prediction · 1-0Win · Draw · Win
46%28%26%

Sat 21 Nov 2026, 13:00

Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz

DAZN GermanyDAZN ItaliaDAZN SpainDAZN SwitzerlandDAZN Austria

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Team news

Alaves

Top performers

  • M. DíazTop scorer6 goals
  • M. DíazMost assists5 assists
  • M. DíazBest rating7.33 avg

Unavailable

  • M. RodriguezAnkle InjuryOut
Deportivo La Coruna

Top performers

  • P. AubameyangTop scorer5 goals
  • P. AubameyangMost assists2 assists
  • P. AubameyangBest rating7.40 avg

Unavailable

No reported injuries or suspensions.

Loading analysis...

La Liga table

#TeamPGDPts
8Villarreal12+215
9Deportivo La Coruna12+115
10Racing Santander12-1314
11Celta Vigo12013
12Alaves12-213
13Espanyol12-112

Sat 21 Nov 2026, 13:00

Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz

DAZN GermanyDAZN ItaliaDAZN SpainDAZN SwitzerlandDAZN Austria

Team news

Alaves

Top performers

  • M. DíazTop scorer6 goals
  • M. DíazMost assists5 assists
  • M. DíazBest rating7.33 avg

Unavailable

  • M. RodriguezAnkle InjuryOut
Deportivo La Coruna

Top performers

  • P. AubameyangTop scorer5 goals
  • P. AubameyangMost assists2 assists
  • P. AubameyangBest rating7.40 avg

Unavailable

No reported injuries or suspensions.

La Liga table

#TeamPGDPts
8Villarreal12+215
9Deportivo La Coruna12+115
10Racing Santander12-1314
11Celta Vigo12013
12Alaves12-213
13Espanyol12-112

AI prediction

Alaves are favourites.

Our pick: Alaves 1-0 Deportivo La Coruna

46%Alaves win
28%Draw
26%Deportivo La Coruna win

Most likely scores

  • 1-113%
  • 1-010%Our pick
  • 2-19%
  • 0-09%
  • 2-08%

1-1 is the single likeliest score, but an Alaves win (46%) is likelier than a draw (28%), so we pick the likeliest score for an Alaves win.

How we predict this

Expected goals: Alaves 1.5, Deportivo La Coruna 1.1 - the average number of goals each side should score, from this season's results at home and away.

Our stats model alone gave 48% / 27% / 25% (Alaves / draw / Deportivo La Coruna); the odds of 10 bookmakers gave 45% / 28% / 27%. We combine the two, with the bookmakers counting for about 75%: odds also reflect injuries and team news.

Our pick is the likeliest score within the likeliest result, so it never contradicts the chances above.

How accurate are our predictions? See the record →

AI match preview

Key Factors
1Alaves' home defensive consistency (4 clean sheets in 6 games) versus Deportivo's away conceded goals (8 in 6 matches).
2Alaves' higher expected goals (1.5) compared to Deportivo's (1.1), reflecting their stronger overall attack and home advantage.
3Deportivo's current form (3 wins, 3 draws in last 10 games) versus their poor away record, which may create a psychological gap despite statistical parity in overall goals.
4Alaves' ability to score (15 goals in 12 games) versus Deportivo's tendency to fail to score (3 instances in 12 matches), which could impact the match's flow.
5The model's weighting toward bookmakers' odds (75%) suggests external factors (e.g., market sentiment) may slightly favor a draw or Deportivo win, despite statistical trends pointing to Alaves' home dominance.
Alaves' home form this season suggests a strong foundation for the match, with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in 6 games, scoring 11 goals while conceding only 6. Their defensive record at home includes 4 clean sheets, indicating a reliable backline that could limit Deportivo La Coruna's attacking options. Conversely, Deportivo's away record is less convincing, with just 1 win, 3 draws, and 2 losses in 6 matches, and they have conceded 8 goals in those games. This contrast in home and away performance aligns with the model's slight edge for Alaves, as their home advantage may neutralize Deportivo's occasional away wins. However, Deportivo's current form includes 3 wins and 3 draws in their last 10 matches, which could provide them with the confidence to challenge Alaves, though their overall goal-scoring (15) and defensive frailty (14 conceded) may limit their ability to secure a result. The model's prediction of a 1-0 scoreline reflects Alaves' higher expected goals (1.5 vs. 1.1) and their stronger home defensive record, but Deportivo's ability to draw games (3 draws in 12 matches) could lead to a stalemate if Alaves fail to convert chances.