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AC Milan vs Frosinone - Serie A prediction, preview and lineups

Serie A
Round 12
AC Milan logo
AC Milan4th · 24 ptsWWLWW
Sun 22 Nov17:00
Frosinone logo
Frosinone6th · 20 ptsLWWDW
Our prediction · 2-1Win · Draw · Win
55%21%24%

Sun 22 Nov 2026, 17:00

Loading analysis...

Team news

AC Milan

Top performers

  • A. CissèTop scorer8 goals
  • A. RabiotMost assists5 assists
  • A. RabiotBest rating7.25 avg

Unavailable

  • A. SaelemaekersAnkle InjuryOut
  • F. TomoriMuscle InjuryOut
  • M. GabbiaThigh InjuryOut
  • M. MaignanRed CardOut
  • R. Loftus-CheekThigh InjuryOut
  • S. ChukwuezeHip InjuryOut
  • W. BondoOff the rosterOut
Frosinone

Top performers

  • A. RaimondoTop scorer9 goals
  • F. GhedjemisMost assists5 assists
  • G. CalòBest rating7.60 avg

Unavailable

No reported injuries or suspensions.

Loading analysis...

Serie A table

#TeamPGDPts
3AS Roma11+2127
4AC Milan11+1024
5Como11+823
6Frosinone11+920
7Juventus11+318

Sun 22 Nov 2026, 17:00

Team news

AC Milan

Top performers

  • A. CissèTop scorer8 goals
  • A. RabiotMost assists5 assists
  • A. RabiotBest rating7.25 avg

Unavailable

  • A. SaelemaekersAnkle InjuryOut
  • F. TomoriMuscle InjuryOut
  • M. GabbiaThigh InjuryOut
  • M. MaignanRed CardOut
  • R. Loftus-CheekThigh InjuryOut
  • S. ChukwuezeHip InjuryOut
  • W. BondoOff the rosterOut
Frosinone

Top performers

  • A. RaimondoTop scorer9 goals
  • F. GhedjemisMost assists5 assists
  • G. CalòBest rating7.60 avg

Unavailable

No reported injuries or suspensions.

Serie A table

#TeamPGDPts
3AS Roma11+2127
4AC Milan11+1024
5Como11+823
6Frosinone11+920
7Juventus11+318

AI prediction

AC Milan are favourites.

Our pick: AC Milan 2-1 Frosinone

55%AC Milan win
21%Draw
24%Frosinone win

Most likely scores

  • 2-19%Our pick
  • 1-18%
  • 3-17%
  • 2-27%
  • 2-06%
How we predict this

Expected goals: AC Milan 2.3, Frosinone 1.5 - the average number of goals each side should score, from this season's results at home and away.

Our pick is the likeliest score within the likeliest result, so it never contradicts the chances above.

How accurate are our predictions? See the record →

AI match preview

Key Factors
1AC Milan's home attacking efficiency and defensive solidity compared to Frosinone's away vulnerabilities.
2Frosinone's ability to score away (8 goals in 5 games) versus their frequency of failing to score (3 instances).
3AC Milan's clean sheet record at home (3 in 5 games) versus Frosinone's away clean sheets (3 in 5 games).
4The disparity in goal expectancy (2.3-1.5) reflecting Milan's home advantage and Frosinone's weaker away attack.
5Frosinone's potential to exploit defensive lapses by Milan, though their historical away performance limits this probability.
The model's preference for AC Milan's victory stems from their dominant home performance, evidenced by 4 wins in 5 matches with 13 goals scored and only 7 conceded. Their attacking efficiency at home (2.6 goals per game) significantly outpaces Frosinone's away record (1.6 goals per game), while Milan's defense has conceded just 1.4 goals per home game. Frosinone's away struggles—2 losses in their last 5 matches and 9 goals conceded—contrast with their 3 clean sheets, suggesting they can defend but lack consistency in scoring. The expected goal differential (2.3-1.5) aligns with Milan's home superiority and Frosinone's weaker away attack. A draw remains plausible if Milan's defense falters or Frosinone capitalizes on rare scoring opportunities, though their 3 failed-to-score instances in away games reduce this likelihood. A Frosinone win would require overcoming Milan's home dominance and their own historical inconsistency in away matches.