Result probabilities
56%Werder Bremen
20%Draw
25%1899 Hoffenheim
Expected goals 2.5 – 1.6
Score probabilities
Most likely: 2-1 (8%), 1-1 (7%), 3-1 (7%) | | 1899 Hoffenheim goals |
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| | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ |
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| Werder Bremen goals | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | | |
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| 1 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
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| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
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| 3 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
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| 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
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| 5+ | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
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% chance of each score. Blue Werder Bremen win, grey draw, amber 1899 Hoffenheim win; darker is likelier. Outlined: our predicted score.
1Werder Bremen’s home attack strength (8 goals in 3 matches) versus Hoffenheim’s weak away defense (7 goals conceded in 3 matches).
2Current form: Werder’s recent win (W in LWDWDD) compared to Hoffenheim’s recent win (W in LLWLLW).
3Expected goal difference (2.5 vs 1.6) reflecting Werder’s superior home attacking efficiency and Hoffenheim’s struggles to limit goals away from home.
4Hoffenheim’s tendency to concede goals in away games, which could be exploited by Werder’s attacking players.
5The absence of clean sheets for both teams, indicating that neither side has demonstrated consistent defensive reliability in this competition.
The statistical model favors Werder Bremen due to their strong home performance, reflected in their 2 wins and 1 draw in 3 home games this season, scoring 8 goals while conceding only 5. This contrasts with Hoffenheim’s poor away record, where they have won just 1 of 3 matches, scoring 5 goals but conceding 7. Werder’s home attack, averaging 2.67 goals per game, aligns with the model’s expectation of 2.5 goals, while Hoffenheim’s away defense, which has conceded 2.33 goals per game, supports the model’s lower expected goals (1.6) for the visitors. Werder’s overall league performance, with 12 goals scored in 6 games, also suggests a more balanced attacking approach compared to Hoffenheim’s 11 goals in the same number of matches. However, Hoffenheim’s recent win in their last match (LLWLLW) and Werder’s recent draw (LWDWDD) indicate that both teams have shown resilience in critical moments, which could influence the outcome if either side capitalizes on defensive lapses.
How accurate are our predictions? See the record →
Bundesliga
