Result probabilities
52%Union Berlin
25%Draw
23%1. FC Köln
Expected goals 1.8 – 1.1
Score probabilities
Most likely: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%) | | 1. FC Köln goals |
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| | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ |
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| Union Berlin goals | 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | | |
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| 1 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
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| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
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| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | | |
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| 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | | |
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| 5+ | 1 | 1 | 1 | | | |
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% chance of each score. Blue Union Berlin win, grey draw, amber 1. FC Köln win; darker is likelier. Outlined: our predicted score.
1Union Berlin's home defensive record (2 clean sheets, 6 goals conceded in 4 games) versus Köln's away defensive collapse (7 goals conceded in 3 games).
2Union Berlin's home attacking output (5 goals in 4 games) compared to Köln's away attacking ineptitude (2 goals in 3 games).
3Expected goal difference (Union's 1.8 vs Köln's 1.1), reflecting Union's stronger attack and Köln's weaker defense.
4Union Berlin's inconsistency in scoring at home (3 games without a goal) and Köln's single failure to score away.
5köln's lack of away wins (0) in this competition, which contrasts with Union's 1 home win.
The model's preference for Union Berlin stems from their home performance and the stark contrast with Köln's away record. Union Berlin has managed 2 clean sheets at home despite conceding 6 goals in 4 games, indicating some defensive resilience. Their attack has scored 5 goals in those matches, suggesting they can capitalize on home advantage. In contrast, 1. FC Köln has failed to win any of their 3 away games, conceding 7 goals in the process, which highlights significant defensive vulnerabilities. Their away attack has only managed 2 goals, making it unlikely they can trouble Union Berlin's home defense. The expected goals (1.8 for Union, 1.1 for Köln) further support this, as Union's attack appears more potent in this venue. However, Union's inconsistency in scoring (3 games without a goal at home) and Köln's single failure to score away could create scenarios where the match ends in a draw or Köln secures an unlikely win if Union's defense lapses.
The model's prediction of a 2-1 scoreline aligns with Union's home attacking efficiency and Köln's defensive frailties. Union's ability to score at home (5 goals in 4 games) contrasts with Köln's inability to score away (2 goals in 3 games), reinforcing the likelihood of Union's dominance. However, Köln's lack of clean sheets away (0) and Union's 3 instances of failing to score at home could lead to a draw if both teams struggle to convert chances. For Köln to win, they would need to overcome their historical away ineptitude, which is improbable given their conceded goals and lack of away wins.
How accurate are our predictions? See the record →
Bundesliga
