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Toulouse vs Estac Troyes - Ligue 1 prediction, preview and lineups

Ligue 1Ligue 1
Round 8
Toulouse logoToulouse(Pos. 11)
VS
25 Oct 202616:15
Estac Troyes logoEstac Troyes(Pos. 17)

25 Oct 2026, 16:15

Stadium Municipal, Toulouse

Geoffrey Kubler

Watch onMaxTV GoArena Sport 5 SerbiaArena CloudLigue1+DAZN Germany

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AI Pre-Match Analysis

Score Prediction
1-0
Confidence
Medium53%
Result probabilities
53%Toulouse
25%Draw
22%Estac Troyes

Expected goals 1.6 – 1.0

Blend of our stats model (40-28-31) and bookmakers' odds (58-23-19, 6 bookmakers)

Score probabilities
Most likely: 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (11%)
Estac Troyes goals
012345+
Toulouse goals08642
11312521
2101141
34531
4221
5+11

% chance of each score. Blue Toulouse win, grey draw, amber Estac Troyes win; darker is likelier. Outlined: our predicted score.

Key Factors
1Toulouse's home goal-scoring efficiency (3 goals in 3 games) versus Troyes' away struggles (2 goals in 3 games).
2Toulouse's overall goal differential (12-11) compared to Troyes' significant deficit (5-16).
3Troyes' frequent failure to score (4 instances in 7 games) versus Toulouse's 2 such instances.
4Toulouse's current form (LDLDWDW) showing more resilience than Troyes' (DWLLLLL).
5The model's reliance on bookmakers' odds, which may prioritize Toulouse's home advantage over statistical anomalies.
Toulouse's home record in Ligue 1 this season shows a mixed but slightly better performance compared to Estac Troyes' away record. While Toulouse have only 1 win and 2 losses in 3 home games, they have managed to score 3 goals, which is a higher rate than Troyes' 2 goals in 3 away games. However, Toulouse's defensive record at home is weak, conceding 5 goals, which may indicate inconsistency. Estac Troyes' away form is even worse, with 2 losses and 1 win in 3 games, but they have conceded 5 goals, similar to Toulouse. The prediction favors Toulouse due to their better overall goal differential (12 scored, 11 conceded) compared to Troyes (5 scored, 16 conceded), suggesting Toulouse are more balanced offensively and defensively. The model's higher confidence in Toulouse (53%) compared to the stats model (40%) may reflect bookmakers' emphasis on Toulouse's home advantage despite their inconsistent defensive record. A draw (25%) or Troyes win (22%) could occur if Toulouse's defensive lapses persist or if Troyes capitalize on their rare away opportunities, though their overall weakness in scoring (only 5 goals in 7 games) makes this less likely.
How accurate are our predictions? See the record →