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St. Truiden vs OH Leuven - Jupiler Pro League prediction, preview and lineups

Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League
Round 10
St. Truiden logoSt. Truiden(Pos. 12)
VS
1 Nov 202615:00
OH Leuven logoOH Leuven(Pos. 15)

1 Nov 2026, 15:00

Daio Wasabi Stayen, Sint-Truiden

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AI Pre-Match Analysis

Score Prediction
1-0
Confidence
Medium51%
Result probabilities
51%St. Truiden
27%Draw
22%OH Leuven

Expected goals 1.6 – 1.0

Score probabilities
Most likely: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%)
OH Leuven goals
012345+
St. Truiden goals09641
1111362
2101052
35521
4221
5+11

% chance of each score. Blue St. Truiden win, grey draw, amber OH Leuven win; darker is likelier. Outlined: our predicted score.

Key Factors
1St. Truiden’s home attacking efficiency (5 goals in 4 games) versus OH Leuven’s away defensive weakness (8 goals conceded in 4 games).
2St. Truiden’s recent mixed form (including a win and draw) compared to OH Leuven’s recent poor form (LLLWD).
3Expected goal difference (1.6 vs. 1.0) highlighting St. Truiden’s higher likelihood of scoring.
4OH Leuven’s history of failing to score in 3 of their 8 league games, increasing the chance of a low-scoring match.
5St. Truiden’s clean sheet record (1 in 8 games) versus OH Leuven’s similar record, suggesting neither side is guaranteed to keep a clean sheet.
The model favors St. Truiden due to their stronger home performance compared to OH Leuven’s poor away record. St. Truiden has scored 5 goals in 4 home games, averaging 1.25 per game, while conceding 6. Their current form includes a recent win and draw, suggesting some consistency despite an overall mixed record. OH Leuven, by contrast, has scored only 2 goals in 4 away games and conceded 8, indicating significant defensive vulnerabilities on the road. The expected goals (1.6 for St. Truiden, 1.0 for OH Leuven) align with these trends, pointing to St. Truiden’s attacking edge and OH Leuven’s struggles to score away from home. The most likely score (1-0) reflects St. Truiden’s ability to capitalize on home advantage and OH Leuven’s defensive frailties. However, the lower probabilities for a draw or OH Leuven win are not impossible. St. Truiden’s recent form (DDWLWLLL) shows inconsistency, with three losses in their last five games, which could lead to a collapse if their defense falters. OH Leuven’s lone away draw (against a team with a similar record) suggests they are not entirely incapable of securing results, though their overall poor away performance makes this unlikely. A draw might occur if St. Truiden fail to convert chances or if OH Leuven’s defense improves temporarily.
How accurate are our predictions? See the record →