Result probabilities
53%Shakhtar Donetsk
21%Draw
26%Sporting CP
Expected goals 2.3 – 1.6
Score probabilities
Most likely: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%) | | Sporting CP goals |
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| | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ |
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| Shakhtar Donetsk goals | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
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| 1 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
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| 2 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
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| 3 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
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| 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
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| 5+ | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | | |
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% chance of each score. Blue Shakhtar Donetsk win, grey draw, amber Sporting CP win; darker is likelier. Outlined: our predicted score.
1Shakhtar Donetsk's home performance (1 win, 3 goals scored) versus Sporting CP's limited away data (1 game, 2 goals scored, 0 conceded).
2Shakhtar's higher expected goals (2.3) compared to Sporting's (1.6), reflecting their stronger attacking output at home.
3Sporting CP's defensive record in away matches (0 conceded) versus Shakhtar's home defensive record (1 conceded in 1 game).
4Current form trends: Shakhtar's DWL versus Sporting's WWL, indicating both teams have faced challenges but with differing outcomes.
5The impact of Shakhtar's clean sheet at home (0) and Sporting's away clean sheet (1), which may influence defensive strategies.
The model's preference for Shakhtar Donetsk is primarily driven by their strong home performance, where they have scored 3 goals in their sole match this season without conceding more than 1. Despite a clean sheet at home, their overall record in the competition shows a balance between scoring (4 goals) and conceding (3 goals), suggesting a competitive edge in attack. Sporting CP's away record, while impressive (1 win, 2 goals scored, 0 conceded), is based on limited data (only 1 game), making it harder to assess their consistency. Their overall form (WWL) and higher scoring output (7 goals) indicate offensive strength, but their defensive record (4 conceded) may be vulnerable against a high-pressing team like Shakhtar. The expected goals (2.3 for Shakhtar, 1.6 for Sporting) align with Shakhtar's home dominance and Sporting's away defensive resilience, but the lower probability of a draw (21%) suggests the model anticipates a decisive outcome. A less likely result, such as a Sporting win, would require Shakhtar's defense to falter significantly, which has not been evident in their limited home matches.
The model's prediction also considers Shakhtar's current form (DWL) and Sporting's (WWL), with both teams showing mixed results. However, Shakhtar's home advantage and higher expected goals give them a statistical edge. Sporting's away clean sheet could be a factor if they maintain defensive discipline, but their limited away data means this is not a guaranteed outcome. A draw might occur if Shakhtar's attack is neutralized by Sporting's defense, but the model's lower draw probability (21%) implies this is less likely than a Shakhtar win.
How accurate are our predictions? See the record →
Champions L.
