Result probabilities
25%SC Braga
28%Draw
47%Famalicao
Expected goals 1.0 – 1.5
Score probabilities
Most likely: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%) | | Famalicao goals |
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| | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ |
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| SC Braga goals | 0 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
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| 1 | 7 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
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| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
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| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | | |
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| 4 | | 1 | | | | |
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| 5+ | | | | | | |
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% chance of each score. Blue SC Braga win, grey draw, amber Famalicao win; darker is likelier. Outlined: our predicted score.
1Famalicao's away attacking efficiency (7 goals in 4 games) versus Braga's home defensive frailty (5 conceded in 4 games).
2Braga's home clean sheets (3 in 8 games) potentially limiting Famalicao's scoring chances.
3Famalicao's away defensive record (4 conceded in 4 games) compared to Braga's home attack (4 goals in 4 games).
4Current form: Braga's mixed home results (DWWLWDLL) versus Famalicao's inconsistent away record (DLLDDDWL).
5Expected goal differential (1.5 for Famalicao, 1.0 for Braga) reflecting attacking and defensive trends at both venues.
The model's prediction favors Famalicao as the most likely winner due to their stronger away performance compared to Braga's inconsistent home record. Famalicao has scored 7 goals in 4 away games (1.75 per game) and conceded only 4, indicating a balanced away approach with a solid defense. In contrast, Braga's home defense has been porous, conceding 5 goals in 4 matches, despite 3 clean sheets. This suggests that while Braga can be disciplined at times, their overall home record (2 wins, 2 losses) lacks consistency. Famalicao's attacking efficiency on the road, combined with Braga's defensive vulnerabilities, increases the likelihood of a Famalicao win. However, Braga's home attack (4 goals in 4 games) and Famalicao's away defensive lapses (4 conceded) could lead to a draw or a Braga win if the home side capitalizes on their chances.
The expected goals (1.0 for Braga, 1.5 for Famalicao) align with the teams' attacking and defensive trends. Braga's home attack is modest, while Famalicao's away attack is more prolific. The most likely score (0-1) reflects a low-scoring encounter, where Famalicao's clinical away performance might edge out Braga's home resilience. However, Braga's ability to keep clean sheets (3 in 8 games) could limit Famalicao's scoring opportunities, while Famalicao's away defense (4 conceded in 4 games) might prevent Braga from capitalizing on their home advantage.
How accurate are our predictions? See the record →
Primeira Liga
SC Braga(Pos. 9)
Famalicao(Pos. 13)