Result probabilities
55%Sassuolo
21%Draw
24%Fiorentina
Expected goals 2.3 – 1.5
Score probabilities
Most likely: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%) | | Fiorentina goals |
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| | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ |
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| Sassuolo goals | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | | |
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| 1 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
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| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
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| 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
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| 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
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| 5+ | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | | |
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% chance of each score. Blue Sassuolo win, grey draw, amber Fiorentina win; darker is likelier. Outlined: our predicted score.
1Sassuolo's home attacking efficiency (6 goals in 3 games) versus Fiorentina's away defensive weakness (8 goals conceded in 3 games).
2Fiorentina's overall poor defensive record (17 conceded in 7 games) compared to Sassuolo's home defensive record (4 conceded in 3 games).
3Expected goal differential (Sassuolo 2.3 vs Fiorentina 1.5), indicating model confidence in Sassuolo's home attack.
4Fiorentina's ability to score away (5 goals in 3 games) versus their tendency to concede.
5Current form: Sassuolo's mixed results (LWDWLDL) versus Fiorentina's recent struggles (LLLWDLL).
The model favors Sassuolo based on their stronger home performance and Fiorentina's weak away record. Sassuolo have scored 6 goals in 3 home games this season, averaging 2 goals per game, while conceding only 4. In contrast, Fiorentina have scored just 5 goals in 3 away games but have conceded 8, indicating significant defensive vulnerabilities on the road. Fiorentina's overall record in Serie A (8 scored, 17 conceded) suggests a lack of consistency, particularly defensively, which aligns with their poor away form. Sassuolo's expected goals (2.3) also exceed Fiorentina's (1.5), reflecting a model assessment that Sassuolo's attack is more effective at home against league-average defenses. The most likely score of 2-1 aligns with these trends, as Sassuolo's home efficiency and Fiorentina's away fragility create a scenario where Sassuolo can capitalize on chances while limiting Fiorentina's scoring opportunities.
However, Fiorentina's ability to score in this match could hinge on their attacking quality, even if their defense is shaky. Their 2 goals scored in 3 away games suggest they can still create chances, though their conceded goals (8) indicate a lack of defensive discipline. If Fiorentina's defense fails to improve, they may concede more than expected, but if their attack finds gaps, they could secure a draw or even a win. Similarly, Sassuolo's home form could falter if Fiorentina's midfield disrupts their rhythm or if Sassuolo's defense makes critical errors, which would increase Fiorentina's chances of scoring.
How accurate are our predictions? See the record →
Serie A
