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Parma vs Udinese - Serie A preview, prediction and lineups

Serie ASerie A
Round 9
Parma logoParma(Pos. 19)
VS
28 Oct 202617:30
Udinese logoUdinese(Pos. 16)

28 Oct 2026, 17:30

Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma

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AI Pre-Match Analysis

Score Prediction
1-2
Confidence
Low43%
Result probabilities
33%Parma
24%Draw
43%Udinese

Expected goals 1.6 – 1.9

Key Factors
1Parma’s home defense (6 goals conceded in 4 games) is significantly weaker than Udinese’s away defense (9 conceded in 3 games).
2Udinese’s away attack (7 goals in 3 games) outperforms Parma’s home attack (3 goals in 4 games).
3Both teams have struggled to keep clean sheets, with Parma failing to score 4 times and Udinese failing to score 2 times.
4Udinese’s overall goal differential (9 scored, 16 conceded) suggests a higher risk of conceding, which could benefit Parma if they capitalize on chances.
5The model’s probabilities (Udinese 43%, draw 24%) reflect a slight edge for Udinese but highlight the unpredictability due to both teams’ defensive inconsistencies.
The statistical model favors Udinese due to their stronger away performance compared to Parma's weak home form. Udinese has scored 7 goals in 3 away games (an average of 2.33 per game) and conceded 9, while Parma has managed only 3 goals in 4 home games (0.75 per game) and conceded 6. This stark contrast in attacking and defensive efficiency at their respective venues suggests Udinese are more likely to dominate possession and create scoring opportunities. Parma’s inability to keep clean sheets at home (0 in 4 games) and their tendency to fail to score (4 times) further weakens their chances. However, Udinese’s defensive record away (9 conceded in 3 games) indicates they may struggle to limit Parma’s attacks, which could lead to draws or even Parma upsets if Udinese’s defense fails to improve. The model’s expected goals (1.6 for Parma, 1.9 for Udinese) align with these trends, but the most likely score (1-2) reflects a balance between Udinese’s attacking threat and Parma’s defensive frailty.
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