Result probabilities
Expected goals 1.8 – 1.3
1Monza’s home attacking efficiency (8 goals in 3 games) compared to Napoli’s away scoring (5 goals in 4 games).
2Napoli’s away defensive record (3 clean sheets in 4 games) versus Monza’s home defense (1 clean sheet in 3 games).
3The expected goal difference (Monza +0.5) reflecting Monza’s higher scoring potential at home.
4Monza’s current form (LLDLWLW) versus Napoli’s (WLLWDWL), with both teams showing similar levels of inconsistency.
5Napoli’s away record of failing to score once (compared to Monza’s 0 failures at home), which could impact their ability to secure a draw or win.
The statistical model favors Monza winning due to their strong home performance, particularly their ability to score goals. Monza has scored 8 goals in 3 home games, averaging 2.67 per game, which contrasts with Napoli’s away record of 5 goals in 4 games (1.25 per game). This suggests Monza’s home attack is more efficient, while Napoli’s away attack is less consistent. Additionally, Monza’s home defense, though not flawless (4 goals conceded in 3 games), has managed 1 clean sheet, indicating occasional resilience. Napoli’s away defense, however, is stronger on paper, with 3 clean sheets in 4 games, but their overall away record (1 win, 1 draw, 2 losses) suggests inconsistency. The expected goals (Monza 1.8, Napoli 1.3) align with these trends, pointing to Monza’s higher scoring potential. A Napoli win or draw would require either Monza’s home attack to falter significantly or Napoli’s away defense to be breached more frequently than usual, which is less likely given their clean sheets.
How accurate are our predictions? See the record →
Serie A
