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Marseille vs Toulouse - Ligue 1 prediction, preview and lineups

Ligue 1Ligue 1
Round 9
Marseille logoMarseille(Pos. 9)
VS
1 Nov 202619:45
Toulouse logoToulouse(Pos. 11)

1 Nov 2026, 19:45

Orange Vélodrome, Marseille

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AI Pre-Match Analysis

Score Prediction
1-2
Confidence
Low41%
Result probabilities
37%Marseille
23%Draw
41%Toulouse

Expected goals 1.9 – 2.0

Score probabilities
Most likely: 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (7%)
Toulouse goals
012345+
Marseille goals0344311
1398531
2477521
3255311
412211
5+1111

% chance of each score. Blue Marseille win, grey draw, amber Toulouse win; darker is likelier. Outlined: our predicted score.

Key Factors
1Marseille's poor home form (1 win, 2 losses in 3 matches) and high home goals conceded (5) compared to Toulouse's stronger away performance (1 win, 3 draws in 4 matches).
2Toulouse's higher expected goals (2.0) versus Marseille's 1.9, reflecting Toulouse's more consistent away attacking output (9 goals scored) against Marseille's inconsistent home scoring (7 goals in 3 matches).
3Both teams' defensive inconsistencies, with Marseille failing to score twice and Toulouse also failing to score twice, which could lead to low-scoring outcomes or draws.
4Marseille's home clean sheets (2) versus Toulouse's lack of away clean sheets (1), indicating potential for Marseille to limit Toulouse's chances but also risk conceding.
5Toulouse's away record of zero losses (1 win, 3 draws) compared to Marseille's home record of two losses, suggesting Toulouse's resilience on the road could be a decisive factor.
The model's prediction of a Toulouse win (41%) and draw (22%) reflects Marseille's inconsistent home form and Toulouse's stronger away performance. Marseille has struggled at home, winning only once in three matches while conceding five goals, indicating defensive vulnerabilities. Toulouse, by contrast, have shown resilience on the road, securing one win and three draws in four away games, with a more balanced attack (9 goals scored) and defense (6 conceded). The expected goals (1.9 for Marseille, 2.0 for Toulouse) align with these trends, suggesting Toulouse's attacking efficiency and Marseille's defensive lapses could lead to a narrow Toulouse victory. However, Marseille's home record includes two clean sheets, hinting at moments of solidity, while Toulouse's away record has only one clean sheet, which could be exploited if Marseille's defense improves. A draw remains plausible if both teams' defensive inconsistencies persist, particularly given Marseille's history of failing to score in two matches.
How accurate are our predictions? See the record →