Result probabilities
Expected goals 2.3 – 1.1
Score probabilities
Most likely: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (9%) | | Angers goals |
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| | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ |
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| Lyon goals | 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | | |
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| 1 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | | |
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| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | | |
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| 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | | |
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| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | | |
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| 5+ | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | | |
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% chance of each score. Blue Lyon win, grey draw, amber Angers win; darker is likelier. Outlined: our predicted score.
1Lyon’s strong home attacking record (10 goals in 4 games) versus Angers’ weak away defense (6 goals conceded in 3 games).
2Lyon’s clean sheet frequency (3 in 4 home games) compared to Angers’ inability to score consistently away (only 4 goals in 3 games).
3Expected goal difference (Lyon 2.3 vs Angers 1.1), reflecting Lyon’s superior attack and Angers’ defensive shortcomings.
4Angers’ inconsistency in form (LWLDWLL) versus Lyon’s more stable home performance (WDWDWLW).
5The potential for set-piece opportunities to influence the match, given Angers’ away record shows they have scored in some games despite their overall weakness.
The statistical model strongly favors Lyon due to their dominant home performance and superior attacking output. Lyon’s home record this season (3 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses) demonstrates consistency, with 10 goals scored and only 3 conceded, reflecting a balanced attack and solid defense. Their overall form (7 games, 13 goals scored) further highlights their offensive capability, which contrasts sharply with Angers’ struggles away from home. Angers have only 1 win in 3 away games, scoring just 4 goals while conceding 6, indicating defensive vulnerabilities that Lyon’s attacking threat could exploit. The model’s expected goals (2.3 for Lyon, 1.1 for Angers) align with these trends, suggesting Lyon’s home advantage and attacking efficiency will likely dominate. However, less likely outcomes could arise if Lyon’s defense falters or if Angers capitalize on set pieces, given their away record shows they have managed to score in some matches despite their overall weakness.
Lyon’s ability to maintain clean sheets (3 in 4 home games) suggests their defensive organization could limit Angers’ chances, especially against a team that has struggled to score away (only 4 goals in 3 games). Conversely, Angers’ lack of consistency (current form LWLDWLL) means they may lack the composure to counter Lyon’s pressure effectively. The model’s prediction of a 2-1 scoreline hinges on Lyon’s attacking prowess and Angers’ defensive frailties, but factors like injuries, tactical adjustments, or individual performances could shift the balance.
How accurate are our predictions? See the record →
Ligue 1
