Result probabilities
54%Kasımpaşa
25%Draw
21%Beşiktaş
Expected goals 1.8 – 1.0
Score probabilities
Most likely: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%) | | Beşiktaş goals |
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| | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ |
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| Kasımpaşa goals | 0 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | | |
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| 1 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | | |
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| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | | |
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| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | | |
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| 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | | | |
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| 5+ | 1 | 1 | 1 | | | |
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% chance of each score. Blue Kasımpaşa win, grey draw, amber Beşiktaş win; darker is likelier. Outlined: our predicted score.
1Kasımpaşa's home defensive record (1 goal per game) versus Beşiktaş's away defensive weakness (1.75 goals per game).
2Kasımpaşa's home attack (1.75 goals per game) compared to Beşiktaş's away attack (1 goal per game).
3Beşiktaş's tendency to concede goals away (7 in 4 matches) and Kasımpaşa's clean sheet frequency (2 in 4 home games).
4Beşiktaş's away record (1 win, 3 losses) versus Kasımpaşa's home record (1 win, 3 draws).
5The expected goal differential (1.8-1.0) reflecting home advantage and away struggles.
The model's preference for Kasımpaşa is rooted in their strong home performance, where they have maintained an unbeaten record (1 win, 3 draws) across 4 matches, scoring 7 goals and conceding only 4. This suggests a disciplined defensive structure at home, supported by 2 clean sheets, which contrasts with Beşiktaş's away struggles, where they have lost 3 of 4 matches, conceding 7 goals (1.75 per game) and scoring just 4. Kasımpaşa's home attack (1.75 goals per game) outperforms Beşiktaş's away attack (1 goal per game), while their home defense (1 goal per game) is significantly better than Beşiktaş's away defense (1.75 goals per game). The expected goal differential (1.8-1.0) aligns with these trends, favoring Kasımpaşa's home dominance. The most likely score (1-0) reflects Kasımpaşa's ability to capitalize on home advantage without necessarily needing to score multiple goals, while Beşiktaş's away inefficiency limits their chances.
The draw probability (25%) hinges on Beşiktaş's ability to score at least one goal away, which they have managed in 4 of 4 matches, albeit with limited success (4 goals total). A defensive lapse by Kasımpaşa or a rare away performance from Beşiktaş could result in a draw. Beşiktaş's win (21%) would require overcoming both their poor away record and Kasımpaşa's home resilience, which is improbable given the statistical gap in goal production and conceded goals.
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Süper Lig
