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Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam - Eredivisie prediction, preview and lineups

EredivisieEredivisie
Round 11
Groningen logoGroningen(Pos. 7)
VS
1 Nov 202615:45
Sparta Rotterdam logoSparta Rotterdam(Pos. 13)

1 Nov 2026, 15:45

Euroborg, Groningen

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AI Pre-Match Analysis

Score Prediction
2-1
Confidence
Low46%
Result probabilities
46%Groningen
20%Draw
34%Sparta Rotterdam

Expected goals 2.4 – 2.1

Score probabilities
Most likely: 2-2 (7%), 2-1 (7%), 1-1 (6%)
Sparta Rotterdam goals
012345+
Groningen goals0222211
1266421
2377532
3356421
4233211
5+123211

% chance of each score. Blue Groningen win, grey draw, amber Sparta Rotterdam win; darker is likelier. Outlined: our predicted score.

Key Factors
1Groningen's home attack (11 goals in 5 games) versus Sparta's away defense (10 goals conceded in 4 games).
2The high expected goal totals (2.4-2.1), indicating a likely open game with multiple scoring chances.
3Sparta's away record (1 win, 1 draw, 2 losses) and lack of clean sheets, which may lead to defensive vulnerabilities.
4Groningen's home defense (11 conceded in 5 games) compared to Sparta's away attack (8 scored in 4 games).
5The possibility of a draw due to both teams' ability to score, despite Groningen's slight edge in expected goals.
The model favors Groningen's home advantage and their relatively stronger defensive and attacking performance at this venue. Groningen has scored 11 goals in 5 home games, averaging 2.2 per match, while conceding 11, which is a 2.2 average. This suggests a balanced home performance, with the team capable of both scoring and preventing goals. Sparta Rotterdam, on the other hand, has struggled away from home, scoring only 8 goals in 4 matches (2.0 per game) while conceding 10 (2.5 per game). Their away defense is particularly weak, which could lead to more goals conceded against a home team like Groningen. The expected goals (2.4 for Groningen, 2.1 for Sparta) align with these trends, pointing to a high-scoring encounter where Groningen's home edge might tip the balance. However, the draw remains a plausible outcome due to the high expected goal totals, as both teams have shown the ability to score and concede in similar volumes. Sparta's lack of clean sheets away (0) and their tendency to fail to score (2 instances) could also increase the risk of a low-scoring game, though this seems less likely given the overall goal expectations.
How accurate are our predictions? See the record →