Result probabilities
54%GIL Vicente
29%Draw
18%Vitória SC
Expected goals 1.5 – 0.7
Score probabilities
Most likely: 1-0 (15%), 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%) | | Vitória SC goals |
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| | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ |
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| GIL Vicente goals | 0 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | | |
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| 1 | 15 | 13 | 4 | 1 | | |
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| 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 1 | | |
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| 3 | 6 | 4 | 2 | | | |
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| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | | | |
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| 5+ | 1 | 1 | | | | |
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% chance of each score. Blue GIL Vicente win, grey draw, amber Vitória SC win; darker is likelier. Outlined: our predicted score.
1GIL Vicente’s home defensive record (4 clean sheets in 4 matches) and low away goals conceded (2) compared to Vitória’s weak away defense (8 conceded in 4 matches).
2Vitória SC’s inability to score away (4 instances of failing to score) versus GIL’s home scoring efficiency (4 goals in 4 matches).
3The contrast in current form: GIL’s mix of wins and draws (WWDLLDWW) versus Vitória’s predominantly negative results (LLWLDLDLW).
The model favors GIL Vicente due to their strong home performance, particularly their defensive resilience and ability to maintain clean sheets. At home, they have conceded only 2 goals in 4 matches, suggesting a solid defensive structure. In contrast, Vitória SC’s away record is dire, with 8 goals conceded in 4 matches and no away wins this season. Their attack also struggles on the road, failing to score in 4 of their 4 away games, which aligns with the low expected goals (0.7) for the visitors. GIL’s current form (WWDLLDWW) includes recent wins and draws, indicating consistency, while Vitória’s form (LLWLDLDLW) shows a lack of stability, with more losses than wins. The most likely score (1-0) reflects GIL’s defensive strength and Vitória’s struggles to break down opponents away from home. However, a draw remains plausible if Vitória’s attack manages to find a goal despite their poor away record, or if GIL’s home attack falters. A Vitória win would require an unlikely turnaround in their away performance, particularly in defense, which has been consistently vulnerable.
How accurate are our predictions? See the record →
Primeira Liga
GIL Vicente(Pos. 6)
Vitória SC(Pos. 11)