Result probabilities
31%Galatasaray
20%Draw
49%VfB Stuttgart
Expected goals 2.0 – 2.5
Score probabilities
Most likely: 1-2 (7%), 2-2 (7%), 1-1 (6%) | | VfB Stuttgart goals |
|---|
| | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ |
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| Galatasaray goals | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
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| 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 |
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| 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 |
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| 3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
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| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
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| 5+ | | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
% chance of each score. Blue Galatasaray win, grey draw, amber VfB Stuttgart win; darker is likelier. Outlined: our predicted score.
1Galatasaray's home defense (1 goal scored, 4 conceded in one game) is a major weakness.
2VfB Stuttgart's away performance (3 goals scored, 0 conceded in one game) highlights their attacking and defensive strength on the road.
3Expected goals (2.5 for Stuttgart vs 2.0 for Galatasaray) suggest a higher likelihood of Stuttgart scoring more, influenced by their overall goal differential (7-2 vs 6-9).
The model's prediction favors VfB Stuttgart due to their strong away performance and Galatasaray's weak home defense. Stuttgart has demonstrated resilience on the road, keeping a clean sheet and scoring 3 goals in their only away game, while conceding none. This contrasts sharply with Galatasaray's home record, where they have scored just 1 goal and conceded 4 in their sole match at this venue, indicating significant defensive vulnerabilities. The expected goals (2.5 for Stuttgart vs 2.0 for Galatasaray) align with these trends, as Stuttgart's attack has been more prolific overall (7 goals in 3 games) compared to Galatasaray's (6 goals in 3 games). However, Galatasaray's ability to score at home, despite their defensive issues, could lead to a draw or even a win if they capitalize on set pieces or counterattacks. The most likely score (1-2) reflects Stuttgart's attacking efficiency and Galatasaray's defensive frailties, but a higher-scoring draw remains possible if Galatasaray's defense fails to improve.
How accurate are our predictions? See the record →
Champions L.
