3Lecce's inconsistent away form (WLLWLLW) and failure to score in 3 of their last 4 away games.
4Frosinone's recent home wins (3 in 4 matches) versus Lecce's mixed away results.
5The model's emphasis on venue-specific performance, where Frosinone's home attack and defense outperform Lecce's away metrics.
The model favors Frosinone due to their strong home performance, which includes 3 wins and 1 loss in 4 matches, scoring 9 goals and conceding only 5. Their home defense has been particularly effective, with 2 clean sheets, suggesting a disciplined backline that could limit Lecce's attacking options. Frosinone's expected goals (1.6) also slightly edge Lecce's (1.3), reflecting their higher offensive output at home. Lecce, while showing some resilience with 2 away wins, has struggled on the road, conceding 4 goals in their last 4 away games and failing to score in 3 of those matches. This inconsistency in their away form, combined with their weaker defensive record (12 conceded overall), makes them less likely to secure a result against a confident Frosinone side. However, Lecce's recent win in their last match (WLLWLLW) could provide a psychological boost, while Frosinone's recent draw (LWWDWLW) might hint at occasional vulnerabilities.