Result probabilities
50%Feyenoord
22%Draw
28%Fortuna Sittard
Expected goals 2.1 – 1.6
Score probabilities
Most likely: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%) | | Fortuna Sittard goals |
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| | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ |
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| Feyenoord goals | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
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| 1 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
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| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
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| 3 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
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| 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
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| 5+ | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | | |
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% chance of each score. Blue Feyenoord win, grey draw, amber Fortuna Sittard win; darker is likelier. Outlined: our predicted score.
1Feyenoord’s home defensive record (4 clean sheets in 4 matches) and high scoring efficiency.
2Fortuna Sittard’s away attacking output (11 goals in 5 matches) versus their weak away defense (8 conceded).
3The disparity in expected goals (2.1 for Feyenoord vs 1.6 for Fortuna) reflecting home advantage and attacking quality.
4Feyenoord’s consistency in avoiding losses at home (0 lost in 4 matches) compared to Fortuna’s 1 failed to score away.
5Fortuna’s ability to maintain a draw despite their lower expected goals, depending on defensive resilience.
The statistical model favors Feyenoord due to their dominant home performance and superior defensive record. At home, Feyenoord has maintained 4 clean sheets in 4 matches, conceding only 4 goals, while scoring 11. This reflects a strong defensive structure and efficiency in front of goal, which aligns with their 2.1 expected goals per game. Fortuna Sittard, despite a solid away record (3 wins, 2 draws in 5 matches), has conceded 8 goals away, indicating vulnerabilities that could be exploited by Feyenoord’s attacking threat. The model’s 50% win probability for Feyenoord is supported by their overall dominance in the league, with 31 goals scored compared to Fortuna’s 16. However, Fortuna’s ability to score 11 goals in 5 away games suggests they are not without threat, though their defensive lapses (8 conceded away) may increase the likelihood of Feyenoord capitalizing on chances. The 2-1 scoreline is plausible due to Feyenoord’s higher expected goals and Fortuna’s inconsistent away defense.
The model’s 28% probability for Fortuna Sittard winning hinges on their away resilience, but their lower expected goals (1.6) and weaker defensive record (1 clean sheet away) make this less likely. A draw (22%) could occur if Feyenoord fail to convert chances or if Fortuna’s defense holds firm, though their away record shows they rarely concede. Key variables include Feyenoord’s ability to maintain their home defensive discipline and Fortuna’s capacity to avoid defensive errors.
How accurate are our predictions? See the record →
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